West Ham vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction: Decent price for a card

Tottenham Hotspur bagged an important 3-1 win over Bodo/Glimt on Thursday night to put one foot into the Europa League final. They’ve still got a tough test to overcome on the plastic pitch in Norway but Ange Postecoglou will hope to lead his side to the final, where they will now almost certainly face off against Manchester United. 

Their entire season rests on that competition, so the Premier League game against West Ham on Sunday (14:00), carries little meaning. It’s 16th vs 17th in the battle to not be the worst team to survive this term, and below you can find my West Ham vs Tottenham Hotspur predictions. 

Team News

Graham Potter will be without long-term absentees Michail Antonio and Crysencio Summerville, with the former Leeds man having surgery on his hamstring recently. Evan Ferguson is available selection again, having been ineligible to face his parent club Brighton & Hove Albion last time out, while Edson Alvarez has missed the last two matches and will have to be assessed. 

Potter is in need of a win, and he may turn away from his 3-4-3 system. He took James Ward-Prowse off at half-time against Brighton and brought Vladimir Coufal on, so that could be a change he sticks with from the off.

For Spurs, they are counting the cost of a brutal evening on Thursday, with James Maddison and Dominic Solanke coming off injured and Lucas Bergvall missing the match entirely with an issue. With a difficult test to come on Thursday, I’d expect Postecoglou to rotate heavily. 

Captain Son Heung-min is a doubt again having missed their last three Premier League fixtures, and defender Radu Dragusin also remains out, so options are limited. Kevin Danso, Djed Spence, Ben Davies, Pape Matar Sarr, Mikey Moore and Archie Gray should all come into the XI, as Spurs turn their full focus to Europe. 

West Ham vs Tottenham Hotspur Odds

West Ham are priced at 6/5 to win this game, while Tottenham are 11/5. That gives the Hammers an implied win probability of 45% heading into the game, and a draw can be backed at 11/4.

BTTS is 1/2 while over 2.5 goals is 8/15, so we are expecting plenty of goalmouth action at the London Stadium. In terms of goalscorers, Jarrod Bowen is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2. 

Draw and BTTS @ 16/5

Let’s start with the BTTS part of this pick, which I think is a solid pick for this Sunday clash. It has come in during 62% of Tottenham’s Premier League games this term, while West Ham have posted the same figure so far this term. 

Both teams have scored in five of the last six West Ham games, while Tottenham have seen six of their last seven in all competitions end with both teams on the scoresheet. Even with the expected rotation, we should see some goals in the capital. 

I’ll also back a draw in this dead rubber, which won’t do much for West Ham’s faith in Potter. They are winless in seven and faith in the English manager is waning. Spurs are going to make changes, but I see a score draw as the most likely outcome. 

Pape Matar Sarr to get booked @ 3/1

I think Sarr will be placed into the middle of the park by Postecoglou as Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur are saved for Thursday, and he is prone to a card. He’s already got six yellows in 32 PL appearances, and eight cards in total in all competitions, so he isn’t afraid of getting stuck in - making 28 fouls along the way. 

This is a game that usually produces fireworks and while I’m not expecting loads of cards given the situation both teams find themselves in, I also don’t think the West Ham crowd will be particularly forgiving towards the referee. This is a decent price for Sarr to get booked, and that’s my second selection.

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