Weekend Ligue 1 Predictions: Dallinga could dent Strasbourg survival hopes in round 28

A fascinating round of fixtures in Ligue 1 last weekend saw Paris Saint-Germain move one step closer to the title and Stade Brestois 29 continue their charge for the Champions League. At the other end of the table, Nantes boss Antoine Kombouare made a winning return to the dugout to lift Les Canaris two points above the drop-zone.

With just seven games remaining of the 2023/24 campaign, up to eight clubs can consider themselves still stuck in a relegation fight. A few of them feature in our weekend Ligue 1 predictions, which can be found below.

Stade Brestois 29 to beat FC Metz to nil @ 23/20 (Sunday, April 7 - KO, 12:00)

Brest were a winning selection at EVS in last week's column as they struck a late winner at FC Lorient. The odds are raised a little higher this time around as we back them to beat Metz and stop them from scoring.

There are 27 points separating these sides in the Ligue 1 table, and Brest were 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture in December, so there's little value to be had in backing them solely for the three points at Stade Francis-Le Ble on Sunday.

We can step things up a notch by backing them to keep a clean sheet in the process. It's a more than achievable aim considering Brest's record at home this season.

Les Pirates have won seven of their 13 games there in Ligue 1, losing just once, and have conceded eight goals - only Lille (seven) have let in fewer on their own patch.

Meanwhile, Metz have lost two of their last three, conceding seven goals across those two defeats, and are the second-lowest scorers in the competition on 25 goals, ahead only of bottom-club Clermont (19).

Four of their 14 trips on the road have seen them fail to fire, and you'd back Brest to be the fifth team to prevent them.

The omens aren't great for the relegation-threatened side, who have lost their last two head-to-heads with Brest by a goal to nil.

Thijs Dallinga to score anytime in Toulouse FC vs RC Strasbourg @ 13/8 (Sunday, April 7 - KO, 14:00)

It's been a fruitful first few months of 2024 for Toulouse forward Thijs Dallinga, who has struck six of his 11 Ligue 1 goals this season since the turn of the year. In fact, the six were shared equally in six games across February and March.

At the time of writing, only Kylian Mbappe (24), Jonathan David (15) and Alexandre Lacazette (13) have scored more goals in the French top-flight than Dallinga, who has four in his last five games and two in his last two - only Le Havre have managed to keep the Netherlands international out during that period.

Dallinga has now scored in his last three matches at Stadium Municipal, which is the venue for Sunday afternoon's clash with Strasbourg, who are only below Toulouse on goal difference.

Both sides are six points ahead of the relegation places and a win for either would go a long way to securing safety. Naturally, Toulouse have been installed as favourites at home, and Dallinga will be expected to play an integral role in helping Les Violets to claim all three points.

Strasbourg have shipped 21 goals on the road this term - only Lorient (26), Metz (25) and Clermont (22) have conceded more away from home - and have only kept one clean sheet in 13 league outings away from Stade de la Meinau.

I don't think they're likely to keep a second one of the season on Sunday, with Dallinga likely to prove pivotal in that.

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais & BTTS - Yes in FC Nantes vs Olympique Lyonnais @ 13/8 (Sunday, April 7 - KO, 19:45)

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when this fixture was shaping up to be a crucial one for both clubs in the race against relegation. But the Lyon steam train just comes on powering through.

Pierre Sage suffered successive defeats in his first two games in charge of Les Gones before losing just three and winning nine of his next 13 in Ligue 1, results which have elevated the side to 10th in the table, nine points above the danger zone.

OL have won six of their last eight in the competition and haven't lost away from home since January 14, when they went down to nine men in a 3-1 defeat to Le Havre.

Sage will fancy his team's chances of recording a fifth-straight away league game against a side who have lost their last seven matches - six of them in the French top-flight - at Stade de la Beaujoire.

But there are reasons - finally - for Nantes fans to be optimistic. The reappointment of Kombouare - who led Les Canaris to Coupe de France success in the 2021/22 season - had the desired effect last weekend as he won his first game back in charge 2-1 at OGC Nice.

The question now is whether Nantes can build on that victory, or if it was a flash in the pan.

Sunday's contest will actually be played behind closed doors, with no home or away fans present, following the use of pyrotechnic devices during a previous Ligue 1 game.

Curiously, that could work in favour of Nantes, who may have been feeling the pressure in front of their own fans. That potential element of fear has now been taken away from them, which really does add an extra layer to this fixture.

For the reasons discussed, I'm inclined to go in the direction of double chance on Lyon, meaning that either a draw or win for the visitors will do.

To bump up the odds I'm adding both teams to score, which has landed in Nantes' and OL's last two matches. The two clubs still have plenty to play for in the remaining seven games of the campaign, with the hosts bidding to avoid the drop and Lyon aiming for a European berth, so goalmouth action at either end feels likely.

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