Sunderland vs Stoke City Prediction: Can Robins stun Black Cats in the FA Cup?

This may look like your standard Championship fixture, but Sunderland host Stoke City in the third round of the FA Cup at 15:00 on Saturday afternoon. The Black Cats are well in the promotion race to get back into the Premier League so that could take priority for Regis Le Bris as he looks ahead to his first FA Cup match. 

Meanwhile, Mark Robins will hope to deliver similar cup success for Stoke City having taken charge last week, after he led Coventry City to the FA Cup semi-final last season. Below you can find my Sunderland vs Stoke City prediction. 

Team News

I’d expect loads of changes from Sunderland heading into this game, with the promotion from the Championship the number one target this term. Simon Moore is likely to deputise for Anthony Patterson in goal, having done well when Sunderland’s number one was out injured last month.

Dennis Cirkin should start at left-back while I’d expect Jobe Bellingham, Dan Neil and Wilson Isidor all to be handed a rest after busy festive schedules. Nazariy Rusyn could play up top with Aaron Connolly likely to also be given some minutes, perhaps in the number 10 role. Leo Hjelde, Trey Samuel-Ogunsuyi, Harrison Jones and Milan Aleksic should all be involved at some stage, with the latter the most likely to start in midfield.

Robins is still getting to grips with his Stoke City squad, and this could be a good chance for the new manager to assess what he has, before making any moves in the transfer window. Former Coventry defender Michael Rose could be given a chance at centre-back along with Ben Gibson, while Jack Bonham should start in goal. 

Niall Ennis, Enda Stevens and Emre Tezgel will also be looking for their chance to impress Robins, who has a big job on his hands to get Stoke moving up the table. Lewis Baker has been recalled from his loan at Blackburn Rovers and could feature in the squad. 

Sunderland vs Stoke City Odds

Sunderland are unsurprisingly the favourites to win this at 8/13, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. Stoke can be backed at 4/1 which is good value given they beat Sunderland 1-0 at the end of December, while a draw is available at 11/4. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during 46% of Sunderland’s matches so far and is available at 5/6 while BTTS is the same price. Isidor is the favourite to score first at 5/1.

Double Chance: Draw or Stoke City @ 6/5

I’m going to lean towards the away side to go to the Stadium of Light and put in a decent display over 90 minutes. I think Sunderland’s stars will all be left on the sidelines and given a rest before the push for the top two continues. The league will take priority over a cup and Stoke can take advantage.

Meanwhile, Robins proved last season he knows how to get results in this competition and his side will want to fight for places in his first-choice XI. I think they can cause a mini upset here, but at the very least, they can take this game to extra-time. I just don’t think Sunderland fans will be that fussed if they get beaten here, which could lead to a strange atmosphere.