Southampton vs Swansea City Prediction: Over 2.5 goals looks enticing

This season has been bleak so far for Southampton. They've won just once in the Premier League and are on another losing streak which currently stands at three matches. Their last outing saw them hammered 5-0 by Brentford on home soil. 

Next up for them at St Mary's is an FA Cup third round tie with Swansea City of the Championship, which takes place on Sunday (16:30, BBC iPlayer). The Swans head into this clash off the back of a 1-1 draw at home to West Bromwich Albion, while they are unbeaten in three of their last five away fixtures. Read on for my Southampton vs Swansea City prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Southampton vs Swansea City Odds

Southampton have won just two matches at St Mary's in 12 outings across all competitions, so their 4/5 price, which has an implied probability of 55.6%, to win in 90 minutes is a little surprising.

Swansea are 16/5 (23.8%) to seal the victory in regulation time, which could offer some value for Sunday because they have won four of their 13 away games in the second tier this campaign, including three of their last seven.

If you fancy this tie to go to extra time, then the draw is on offer at 3/1, with the two teams experiencing 10 stalemates between them in their respective leagues this term.

In the last three matches at St Mary's, both teams to score no has been a winning selection, which is valued at 11/10 for this contest.

Football Odds

Team News

Saints boss Ivan Juric will no doubt want to make changes to the side that were battered by Brentford last weekend, but with a crunch league clash at Manchester United coming in midweek, alterations were likely already planned for.

We could see forwards Adam Armstrong and Cameron Archer return to the XI against the Swans, in place of Paul Onuachu. Opportunities could also be in store for the likes of Adam Lallana, Charlie Taylor, Ryan Manning, Yukinari Sugawara, Alex McCarthy and Armel Bella-Kotchap.

This might have led to a rare start for Ben Brereton Diaz, but reports suggest he is on the cusp of sealing a loan return to Championship side Sheffield United.

On the injury front, Juan Larios (knock) and Jack Stephens (muscle) are not in contention for Sunday, but both are expected to return to the fold in the coming weeks. Will Smallbone (hamstring), ex-Swansea man Flynn Downes (leg) and Ross Stewart (calf) are also doubts for this match, while goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu remains sidelined with an Achilles problem.

Swansea boss Luke Williams will be without the services of Kristian Pedersen and Sam Parker due to hamstring issues. Attacker Josh Ginnelly is also unavailable because of an Achilles problem, while Oliver Cooper is suffering with a foot injury, so they are also going to be absent in Hampshire.

Williams might sense a great opportunity for his side to progress into the fourth round here, so we could see him name a similar XI to the one that faced West Brom last time out. If he did decide to freshen things up slightly, we could potentially see the likes of Joe Allen and Myles Peart-Harris promoted from the bench.

Draw or Swansea City @ 21/20

Three wins in 24 appearances across all competitions is not the best return for Southampton, and Swansea will be fancying their chances to beat the struggling Saints on Sunday.

The hosts have lost three games on the spin and the home drubbing at the hands of Brentford last week will have dented their confidence massively. Swansea head into this match with two wins from their last four in the Championship, and although they came at home, they have picked up four victories on the road in 2024/25.

Swansea also knock the ball around well, something that Southampton did under former boss Russell Martin, but without any bite in the final third. They can cause problems for the wailing Saints, and I think there is value to be had in backing the away side here.

The visitors have been hit and miss on the road this season, so for insurance, I've gone for double chance so that a draw is covered as well for the 90 minutes. Swansea are unbeaten in five of their last eight away trips in the Championship, so I think even at shorter odds, this market still offers good value to punters.

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

For my second selection, I fancy a goal threshold to be met, and this case over 2.5 goals. If you are unfamiliar with this market, it means that the match must produce three or more goals for this to be a winner - and in this case they must be scored in 90 minutes.

Over 2.5 goals has struck in four of Southampton's last five league games at St Mary's, while it has also landed in six of Swansea's previous seven encounters in the Championship.

Southampton have the joint-second worst defensive record in the Premier League this season with 44 goals conceded in 20 appearances. This means they are averaging 2.2 per match, so I think this trend can continue in a nervy cup tie in which they can face an upset on home turf.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any FA Cup game on Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s FA Cup games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)