Sao Paulo vs Gremio Prediction: Hernan’s hosts to prevail

Sao Paulo have made a positive start to the 2026 Brazilian Serie A season, following up a 2-1 victory over reigning champions Flamengo with a 1-1 draw at Santos last week. On Thursday (00:30 GMT), the Tricolor Paulista take on Gremio, who fell to an opening-round defeat at Fluminense (2-1) before coming from behind at home to beat Botafogo (5-3), at the Estadio Do MorumBIS.

Below are my Sao Paulo vs Gremio predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Sao Paulo head coach Hernan Crespo is likely to be without Andre Silva and Ryan Francisco (both knee) again.

Football Odds

Gremio boss Luis Castro, meanwhile, heads to Sao Paulo without Martin Brathwaite (Achilles) and Mathias Villasanti (knee), while Miguel Monsalve (unspecified) is doubtful after missing his side's 1-0 victory over Novo Hamburgo in the Gaucho last Saturday.

Sao Paulo vs Gremio Odds

Sao Paulo are 1/1 to claim all three points, implying a 50% probability of success, while Gremio are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to secure back-to-back league victories, with the draw offered at 11/5.

Match Result - Sao Paulo @ 11/10

The home side has emerged victorious in the last eight head-to-heads, and there's a fair argument to be made that this streak will be extended to nine on Thursday.

Sao Paulo have claimed four points from their first two games, notably beating reigning champions Flamengo at home in the first round of fixtures, while Gremio suffered defeat in their first away match at Fluminense.

Today's Football Fixtures

Gremio haven't tasted success at this ground since September 2013, recording six consecutive draws there - the last of them in the Copa do Brasil - before falling to four straight losses, the most recent of which was a 2-1 reverse last May.

Including last season, Gremio have now lost six of their last eight Serie A away games (W1, D1), and it's difficult to look past a victory on Thursday for Sao Paulo, who have won their last three league matches on home soil.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 5/6

There has been plenty of action at both ends in the majority of Sao Paulo's games this calendar year, with six of their last seven in all competitions seeing both teams score.

Gremio, meanwhile, have seen BTTS-Yes land in four of their last five, including, like Sao Paulo, both of their league matches this season.

Both teams have found the net in two of the last three head-to-heads, too, including last year's corresponding fixture.

With plenty of firepower in both teams' ranks, backing both to strike on Thursday could be wise.