USA vs Australia Prediction: Bad blood to spill over in Seattle showdown

Group D's two triumphant teams in the opening round of 2026 FIFA World Cup fixtures, the USA and Australia, meet at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington on Friday (12pm local, 8pm BST, BBC One).

Below are my USA vs Australia predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

The USA's main man, Christian Pulisic, was withdrawn at half-time of his side's 4-1 win over Paraguay after aggravating a calf injury, and the AC Milan forward trained alone on Wednesday, sparking fears he could miss the Stars and Stripes' second group game.

Head coach Mauricio Pochettino may turn to Borussia Monchengladbach's Giovanni Reyna, who rounded off the scoring against Paraguay, if Pulisic fails a fitness test.

World Cup Odds

Australia boss Tony Popovic could stick with the starting XI that served him so well in his side's 2-0 victory over Turkey.

Maty Ryan was surprisingly left out of the Socceroos' opening match, with Patrick Beach preferred between the sticks, and the Melbourne City man should keep his spot after his impressive performance against the Crescent-Stars, who he rebuffed no fewer than eight times in Vancouver.

USA vs Australia Odds

USA are 4/7 to make it two wins out of two in Group D, implying a 63.6% probability of success, with Australia 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to maintain their 100% record, and the draw offered at 16/5.

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Player To Score From Outside The Box - Nestory Irankunda (AUS) @ 22/1

Nestory Irankunda enjoyed a special World Cup debut last week, breaking away in the 27th minute to open the scoring for Australia in their triumph over Turkey.

The 20-year-old's strike came from just inside the 18-yard box, but three of his four goals for Watford in 2025/26 were scored from outside of the penalty area, and despite his tender age, the Adelaide United Academy product has already carved out a reputation as a long-shot specialist.

Full of confidence after his goal against the Crescent-Stars, expect the Hornets winger to shoot from all angles in the Socceroo's second group game, with 22/1 a very attractive price indeed for someone with his ball-striking abilities to net from outside the box.

Total Cards Over/Under +3/5 - Over 3.5 @ 5/6

Despite only two yellow cards being shown in last October's friendly, won 2-1 by the USA, there was no love lost between the two teams with Stars and Stripes defender Chris Richards, who was booked in that Commerce City contest, admitting there was bad blood.

“Yeah, I mean it wasn’t so friendly, to be fair,” Richards said. “I think both teams came into it and wanted to prove a point... tempers boiled a little bit."

On Friday's World Cup meeting, the Crystal Palace star added: “I think it will be very physical.

“Again, I think there might be a little bit of bad blood from the last one. So I think both teams have a point to prove, and I think, obviously with it being a World Cup, I think it means a bit more and so it’s not just a friendly.

“It’s it’s a knockout-style tournament and when you represent your country at the highest level, obviously both teams will be very passionate, so I expect a very physical game.”

The USA were involved in a card-heavy game against Paraguay, with six yellow cards shown, five in the direction of the South Americans.

Just a single caution, to Turkey, was awarded in Australia's opening match, but I'm expecting more bookings in their second.

American analyst Mike Grella, who spent some of his playing days in England with Leeds United and Brentford, has stoked the fires in recent weeks, too, belittling Australia and their chances of getting out of Group D.

His words have been picked up by Australian media and it sounds like they could be fuel for the Socceroos, who will be desperate to shove them down Grella's throat.