Reims vs Metz Prediction: Ligue 1 promotion/relegation play-off could go the distance

It was an eventful few days for Stade Reims last week as they drew 1-1 at Metz in the first leg of their Ligue 1 promotion/relegation play-off tie on Wednesday, before suffering a 3-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Coupe de France Final three days later.

On Thursday, they turn their attention back to the league, with the second leg taking place at the Stade Auguste-Delaune (19:30). Below are my Reims vs Metz predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this do-or-die contest in France.

Team News

Yaya Fofana (ankle), Mohamed Daramy and Reda Khadra (both knee) remain sidelined for Reims, while the exclusion of Maltese midfielder Teddy Teuma, who hasn't played since netting the winner in the 2-1 Coupe de France semi-final victory over Cannes on April 2, continues.

Reims head coach Sebastian Diawara made two changes to his starting XI for Saturday's cup final defeat at the Stade de France, promoting Amadou Kone from the bench and bringing Japanese winger Junya Ito back after he missed out on last week's first leg at Metz.

Football Odds

John Joe Patrick Finn and Ange Tia were the two players to suffer demotions on the weekend, so both will be looking to get back in the line-up on Thursday.

For Metz, Joel Asoro (unspecified), who hasn't featured since March 28, is expected to miss out again, as is first-choice goalkeeper Arnaud Bodart (knee), who picked up an injury during the 3-2 victory over Stade Lavallois on the final day of the Ligue 2 season.

Pape Sy came on for Bodart against Stade Lavallois and has started Metz's last two games, so the Senegalese shot-stopper is likely to be called upon again in midweek.

Idrissa Gueye, Pape Amadou Diallo, Alpha Toure and Ablie Jallow all appeared as second-half substitutes last week, and all four will be looking to make an impact on Thursday.

Reims vs Metz Odds

Reims haven't won in over a month, taking just a point from their final four Ligue 1 games before last Wednesday's draw with Metz and last Saturday's cup final defeat to PSG. Still, Diawara's side are 5/4 favourites to triumph in regulation time on Thursday, implying a 44.4% probability, while the visitors are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to claim victory without the need for extra time.

Another draw in 90 minutes is priced at 11/5, both teams to score again at 10/11, and a repeat of last week's 1-1 scoreline is available at 11/2.

The first leg goalscorers, Metz's Matthieu Udol and Reims' Cedric Kipre, are 8/1 and 22/1, respectively, in the anytime goalscorer market.

Match Result - Draw @ 11/5

There was nothing to separate the sides last week as Kipre's 52nd-minute strike cancelled out Udol's 38th-minute opener, and I'm predicting another close contest in the second leg.

Reims start the game as favourites to win, which is understandable given their higher league standing and the fact that Thursday's match is at their home stadium.

However, Les Rouges et Blancs are suffering a crisis of confidence, failing to win any of their last six games, losing four and drawing twice. It was draws that proved to be their downfall in Ligue 1, with only FC Nantes (12) experiencing more stalemates than Reims (nine). They lost three fewer games than Le Havre, who finished a point above them in 17th, but only won eight compared to Le Club Doyen's 10.

Metz, meanwhile, have lost just once since February 22, winning seven and drawing four of their other 11 matches. Draws were an issue for Stephan Le Mignan's side, too, as they were the only team in the top seven to post double digits for stalemates (11). Had they turned a couple of draws into wins, they would have gained automatic promotion to Ligue 1 and avoided this promotion/relegation play-off.

So, then, backing another draw between Reims and Metz looks like the smart play here. This could well be a contest that is decided in extra time, or potentially on penalties.

First Team To Score - Metz @ 13/10

Reims fell behind to Metz last Wednesday, and slow starts have characterised their May.

Diawara's charges have conceded first in all five games they have played this month, which is less surprising when you consider they've only scored twice.

OGC Nice, Saint-Etienne, Lille OSC, Metz and PSG have all secured first-half leads against Reims in May, with only Thursday's opponents failing to end the game with a win.

Metz have played much inferior opposition to Reims, but they've scored the first goal in their last three matches, so they are more familiar with starting well.

Thursday's visitors have had longer to prepare for this second leg, with Reims involved in a cup final last weekend, so they may look to start on the front foot and get the all-important opener.

Offers

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