Partick Thistle vs Livingston Prediction: Home side can land blow

We’ve got a play-off semi-final coming our way from north of the border as Partick Thistle host Livingston at the Energy Check Stadium (19:45, BBC Scotland). The hosts edged past Ayr United to reach this stage, while Livingston finished third in the Scottish Championship to qualify for this semi-final. 

Below you can find my Partick Thistle vs Livingston predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

Partick came from 1-0 down to beat Ayr 2-1 so Scott Brown may choose to stick with that winning team. However, Kyle Turner picked up an injury in the first half and was replaced by Zander Mackenzie, with the latter in line to start if Turner is not deemed fit enough for this one. 

With the second leg of this tie coming up on Friday, freshness could come into play, but Brown will want to get the best out of 37-year-old Brian Graham, but struck twice in that second leg to secure the victory. Youngster Aidan Fitzpatrick could provide the legs alongside him as Partick look to pull off another win.

Meanwhile, David Martindale has some tough decisions to make as his side missed out on the title on the final day. His side lost 1-0 to Partick but a win wouldn’t have been enough as Falkirk beat Hamilton to secure top spot, however the gaffer will want to see more from his team this time around. 

They’ve had an 11-day break since that fixture so they are considerably better rested than their opponents, and they will hope Robbie Muirhead can produce the goods, having scored four in his last five outings. The experienced Andrew Shinnie will also be hoping to force his way into the line-up while Cristian Montano and Tete Yengi are competing for a spot on the left wing. 

Partick Thistle vs Livingston Odds

Partick have been priced up at 3/1 to win this first leg, with Livingston available at 10/11. That means the away side have an implied win probability of 52% with a draw 9/4 if you fancy parity over the first 90. Over 2.5 goals is 11/10, BTTS is 10/11 and Muirhead is the favourite to score first at 9/2, 

Partick Thistle to win @ 3/1 

Great value on offer here, so I’m going to back a home win. I know the break in theory should benefit Livingston, but I think Partick will be sharper and certainly carry more momentum into this semi-final. I’m not sure they will win the tie, but I feel confident backing them to win this home leg at a massive price based on what we have seen of late. 

Brown will have his team fired up for this semi-final and we know that they have what it takes to beat Livingston having come out as 1-0 winners when the teams met less than two weeks ago. That will give them huge confidence that they can repeat the feat especially given they’ve only lost twice at home all season. 

They’ve won three out of their last four games, also beaten champions Falkirk at home with 10-men, so they have what it takes to down the top sides in this division. This is a generous price I’m going to take advantage of. 

Partick Thistle 1-0 Livingston @ 10/1

I think a repeat scoreline offers odds that are simply too big to turn down. Partick’s matches over the regular league season haven’t contained many goals at all, and this will be another tie decided by fine margins. 

Partick scored 43 and conceded just 38 across their 36-game season, while Livingston boast the best defensive record in the league having conceded just 27 times. Under 2.5 goals is certainly worth considering but I’ve taken it one step further and backed a 1-0 home success.

Offers

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