Nice vs Nantes Prediction: Lepenant to lure in belligerent Boudaoui for a booking

OGC Nice's pursuit of a top-two finish in Ligue 1 has been hampered by a three-game winless run, the latest of which saw them beaten by AS Monaco, who are now second, a point above Marseille and three clear of Les Aiglons. Next up for Franck Haise's side is a Friday night visit from FC Nantes (13th), who are just three points above the relegation play-off place after three defeats in their last four matches.

Below are my Nice vs Nantes predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 19:45 kick-off (Ligue 1 Pass) at Allianz Riviera.

Team News

Veteran Nice defender Dante was sent off in second-half stoppage time against Monaco last Saturday, and the Brazilian is now banned for Friday's match.

Left-back Melvin Bard is also suspended after receiving a two-game ban for his second dismissal of the season in Nice's 1-1 draw with Auxerre on March 14.

Tanguy Ndombele, meanwhile, misses out with a groin injury that has kept him sidelined since February 23.

Football Odds

Terem Moffi made his return from a cruciate ligament injury last weekend, marking his comeback 314 days after his last appearance, and the Nigerian forward will be looking for more minutes on Friday.

Nantes have their own suspended defender in Jean-Charles Castelletto, who will serve the last of a two-match ban received for his red card in a 1-0 defeat to Lille OSC before the international break.

Marcus Coco, Tino Kadewere (both muscle), Adel Mahamoud (knee) and Nathan Zeze (ankle) are still in the visitors' treatment room, while former Liverpool midfielder Pedro Chirivella (unspecified) is a doubt after being withdrawn before half-time in last Sunday's 3-2 loss at Le Havre.

Nice vs Nantes Odds

Nice haven't won since March 1 and are winless at home against Nantes since January 2022, but Les Aiglons are 1/2 to claim maximum points on Friday, implying a 66.7% probability. The visitors, meanwhile, are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to triumph on their travels for the first time since February 2.

The sides played out a 1-1 draw in October's reverse fixture, and you can back a second stalemate of the season between the two at 16/5, while a repeat of that scoreline, which has landed seven times for Nantes in 2024/25, can be found at 7/1.

Both teams to score, which has been a winner in 11 of Nantes' last 13 away games in Ligue 1, is available at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Nice & Under 3.5 Goals @ 23/20

Nice have only taken one point from their last three games but should be encouraged by a home game against Nantes, who have lost three of their last four, as well as the last three on their travels.

Only four Ligue 1 have won fewer points away from home than Nantes (11) this season, and their total of 30 goals conceded is second only to St. Etienne (40).

Nice, meanwhile, are joint-fourth in the French top flight 'home' table with only three teams accruing more points at their own stadium than Les Aiglons (28).

Haise's side haven't won at Allianz Rivera since February 23, losing 2-0 to Lyon on March 9 and drawing 1-1 there to Auxerre five days later. Their defeat to Monaco last weekend made it three games - home or away - without a victory, but all three of those sides are in the top 10.

Auxerre (10th) are the lowest-ranked of the three, but even they are eight points better off than Nantes, and prior to this winless run, Nice had enjoyed a four-game victory streak, the last three of which were against the bottom three.

Nantes do possess some threatening players in their ranks, notably Moses Simon and Mostafa Mohamed, who linked up brilliantly for the latter's goal in their 1-0 win over Lille on March 15.

However, they're poor travellers, losing half (seven) of their 14 matches on the road, and now face a daunting trip down south.

I'm backing Nice to get back to winning ways on Friday, but I don't see too many goals being scored.

There have been 40 Ligue 1 strikes at Allianz Rivera this season, 28 in favour of Nice and 12 for the opposition - averaging out at 3.1 per game, and 76.9% (10) of the 13 matches played there have gone under 3.5 goals, including the last five.

Player to Receive a Card - Hicham Boudaoui (NIC) @ 23/10

Nice have been shown 45 yellow cards in Ligue 1 this season, and 17.8% (eight) have been flashed in the direction of midfielder Hicham Boudaoui, making him the club's most cautioned player.

The 25-year-old is, statistically, one of the league's dirtiest players, with only Lille's Benjamin Andre (10) and Montpellier pair Rabby Nginzoula and Modibo Sagnan (both nine) booked more times in 2024/25.

Bouadaoui is averaging 0.4 cards every 90 minutes, and he's also 17th in Ligue 1 for fouls made (35), averaging 1.6 per 90. His last booking, though, against Monaco last weekend, was for dissent.

On Friday, the Algeria international is likely to be in direct contact with Nantes midfielder Johann Lepenant, who has been fouled, on average, 1.9 times per 90 in this season's top flight.

Lepenant is also successful at luring opponents into yellow-card challenges, whether on purpose or not.

Marseille midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg was booked in the 37th minute of his side's victory over Nantes on March 2 for a foul on the 22-year-old, while three Lens players - Jonathan Gradit, Facundo Medina and Adrien Thomasson - were yellow-carded for upending Lepenant in their 3-1 defeat to La Maison Jaune on February 23. The Frenchman was fouled three times in that game, and all three challenges resulted in a caution.

As Nice's most carded player and the one who has committed the most fouls, Boudaoui instantly sticks out as someone to back in the player card markets, but particularly this week as he plays in a similar area of the pitch to one of the league's most fouled players (per 90).

Offers

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