Montpellier vs Lens Prediction: Expert travellers to keep things tight again

Montpellier have endured a dreadful season so far but back-to-back wins have lifted them off the bottom of Ligue 1 and to within three points of 15th-placed St. Etienne, who occupy the final survival slot in the French top flight. Standing in their way of a third straight success on Friday night (19:45) are seventh-placed Lens who have picked up more points on their travels (16) than they have at home (14) in 2024/25.

Below is my Montpellier vs Lens prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this meeting at the Stade de la Mosson.

Team News

Akor Adams struck eight times in his debut season for Montpellier in 2023/24 but scored just three goals in 15 Ligue 1 appearances this term before being allowed to leave permanently for Spanish side Sevilla earlier this week.

Arnaud Nordin also recently left the club, swapping Montpellier for Mainz in Germany, but Andy Delort, who scored 47 goals across four seasons for La Paillade before moving to OGC Nice in 2021, has rejoined the club on loan from MC Alger.

Friday's hosts will be without injured trio Nikola Maksimovic (thigh), Christopher Jullien (knee) and Luca Mincarelli (unspecified) for the visit of Lens, while Jordan Ferri serves the final match of a three-game ban handed to him for his red card in Montpellier's 3-1 defeat to Angers on January 12.

Football Odds

Lens have sanctioned a couple of significant departures themselves this month, selling goalkeeper Brice Samba to Ligue 1 rivals Rennes and defender Abdukodir Khusanov to reigning Premier League champions Manchester City.

As part of their negotiations with the English side, the name of Abdulay Juma Bah, who was recently signed by Man City before being sent on loan to Lens, was presumably brought up. The 18-year-old made 12 La Liga appearances for Real Valladolid before being snapped up by City and he could make his debut in French football on Friday.

Australian shot-stopper Mathew Ryan made his own Ligue 1 debut last Sunday, keeping a clean sheet in his new club's 1-0 win over Angers, which was Goduine Koyalipou's third game for Lens since making a mid-season move from CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria.

Jeremy Agbonifo is another potential debutant for Will Still's side following his recent arrival on loan from Swedish team Hacken.

Still won't be able to call upon Florian Sotoca (calf), Martin Satriano, Remy Labeau Lascary (both knee), Denis Petric (back) or Jhoanner Chavez (ankle), though, all of whom are injured for the visitors.

Montpellier vs Lens Odds

Montpellier have sparked a fight against relegation with back-to-back league wins but that's not enough to shake off their underdog tag against Lens on Friday as they are priced at 16/5 to claim all three points against an opponent they haven't beaten since October 2021. La Paillade are given an implied win probability of 23.8% while Les Sang et Or are 5/6, or a 54.5% chance, to make it back-to-back away wins in Ligue 1.

The draw, which was a winner in both meetings last season, can be backed at 11/4, with both teams to score at 8/13.

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Draw or Lens & Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/4

Lens aren't pulling up any trees in Still's first season as head coach but they're by no means struggling, heading into the weekend's fixtures seventh with 30 points from 19 games.

Les Sang et Or have struggled for goals, scoring just 23 times in the French top flight this term - the lowest tally in the top half - but they've been miserly at the back, conceding only 18 goals - Ligue 1 leaders Paris Saint-Germain (17) are the only side who can lay claim to a meaner defence.

PSG (21) are also just one of two teams - Marseille (24) are the other - to have collected more points away from home than Lens (16), who have lost just once on their travels this term - to the Parisians (1-0) on November 2, a game in which they were reduced to 10 men just before the hour mark.

Six of Lens' nine away trips have gone under 2.5 goals and they, of course, avoided defeat in all six, so draw or Lens and under 2.5 goals has been a winner in 66.7 per cent of their road matches.

Montpellier, meanwhile, have the division's third-worst attack as only Le Havre (14) and St. Etienne (18) have scored fewer goals than their tally of 20. 15 of those strikes have come on home soil but Lens are a side that will expect to restrict the hosts to few chances on Friday and they could well frustrate Jean-Louis Gasset's charges.

Highest Scoring Half - Second Half @ 21/20

Lens' Ligue 1 games this season are averaging exactly one first-half goal scored (13 for, six against) with only Toulouse (18 - 10 for, eight against) seeing fewer strikes before half-time.

Montpellier have seen 10 more first-half goals scored in their games but that pales in comparison to the 35 struck after the interval, and the first half has been the highest-scoring half in their last four matches.

The second half, meanwhile, has been the highest-scoring half in four of Lens' last five league contests, so with few strikes expected on Friday, we could see a cagey contest in the beginning, with Lens potentially coming on strong after half-time.

Therefore, 21/20 for the second half to be the highest-scoring half appeals.

Offers

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