Marseille vs Lorient Prediction: More travel troubles for Les Merlus

Olympique Marseille have endured a difficult start to the new season, losing two of their first three Ligue 1 games, just like upcoming opponents, FC Lorient, who have also won one and lost two.

Below are my Marseille vs Lorient predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Friday night fixture at the Stade Velodrome (19:45 BST, Amazon Prime PPV).

Team News

Marseille head coach Roberto De Zerbi could hand debuts to Emerson Palmieri, Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd and Matt O'Riley, all of whom joined the club on transfer deadline day.

Arthur Vermeeren is also looking to make his bow following his August 31 arrival from RB Leipzig.

CJ Egan-Riley won't be featuring on Friday, though, following his red card against Lyon last time out, with either Pavard or Aguerd likely to take his starting spot.

Geoffrey Kondogbia has recovered from the head injury that forced him to miss Marseille's last two games, but summer signing Igor Paixao (muscle), who is yet to don his new colours, could be forced to watch on again.

Fellow new arrival Facundo Medina has been nursing an ankle issue, but he could make his competitive debut for Marseille on Friday.

Football Odds

As for Lorient, Nathaniel Adjei, Bandiougou Fadiga (both ankle), Pablo Pagis (calf), Panos Katseris and Isaak Toure (knee) are all doubtful ahead of their trip to the Velodrome.

Bamo Meite joined Loient on loan from Marseille on deadline day and could go straight into the squad to face his parent club, while Newcastle United teenager Trevan Sanusi made the same move and will hope to make his debut this week.

Today's Football Fixtures

Marseille vs Lorient Odds

Lorient haven't beaten Marseille since April 2015, with Les Phoceens winning nine of the last 12 meetings (D3), including both in the 2023/24 season, when Les Merlus were relegated at the end of it.

Marseille's price of 1/3 on Friday implies a 75% probability of success, while Lorient, at 15/2, are handed an 11.8% chance, with the draw offered at 9/2 (18.2%).

Both teams to score is 8/11, despite the selection landing just once each this season, while BTTS-No is 11/10.

To Win to Nil - Marseille @ 13/10

Lorient began life back in Ligue 1 with a 1-0 defeat at Auxerre, and while that's not a concerning scoreline in itself, a look back at last season's results in the second tier suggests they struggled to find the net on their travels.

Despite winning Ligue 2 by two points, Lorient only scored 19 away goals in 17 games - a total bettered by five other sides.

Les Merlus got off the mark in style against Rennes, thrashing Les Rouge et Noir 4-0 at home in their second game this season, but the visitors were reduced to 10 men in the sixth minute, and nine in the 11th, with the hosts only making the breakthrough in the fourth minute of first-half stoppage time.

Then, in their third match, they were dismantled 7-1 at home by Lille, and their goal only came about in the immediate seconds after Sambou Soumano's saved spot-kick.

So, despite scoring five goals, I need a lot more convincing over Lorient's attack; four of their strikes came against the nine men of Rennes.

Perhaps a trip to the Velodrome to face Marseille, who are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding four goals, isn't as daunting as it may have appeared at the start of the campaign, but I think there is an argument to be made that Les Phoceens have been decent defensively.

They lost 1-0 at Rennes, who were reduced to 10 men in the 31st minute, on the opening weekend, but the home side's goal was struck in the first minute of second-half stoppage time, and a result of a high line gone awry; De Zerbi and his defenders have surely learnt their lesson from that.

They threw away a two-goal lead in their first home game against Le Havre, before roaring back to life in the final 20 minutes and scoring three times to win 5-2, but they showed bravery in their next match, a 1-0 defeat at Lyon, where Egan-Riley was dismissed in the 29th minute; Les Gones only found the winner in the 87th minute.

Marseille have made three defensive additions and signed a central midfielder since that defeat at Groupama Stadium, while De Zerbi has had a couple of weeks to correct errors that have cropped up.

I wouldn't ordinarily back Marseille to keep a clean sheet, but it's Lorient's away deficiencies of last season, and struggles so far this term, that lead me to pick out a home win to nil here at 13/10.

Player to Receive a Card - Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (OM) @ 13/5

Marseille midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg was carded five times in his maiden Ligue 1 campaign, which worked out as a yellow every six appearances, not too bad considering he racked up nine in two separate Premier League seasons for Southampton (2018/19) and Tottenham Hotspur (2020/21).

The 30-year-old only averaged a foul per game in the 2024/25 French top flight, but is on 1.3 per game this term after committing a single offence against Paris FC and three against Lyon.

He avoided a booking in both matches, but wasn't able to evade a card in Denmark's goalless draw with Scotland last Friday. He was shown a yellow in just the fourth minute after fouling Aston Villa's John McGinn.

This Friday, Hojbjerg is likely to be in direct contact with Lorient's Arthur Avom Ebong, who has already won five free-kicks for his side this season. The 20-year-old proved a tricky customer in Ligue 2 last season, averaging 1.5 fouls won per game, and the early signs are that he can pose problems for top-flight teams, too.

Midfield partner Laurent Abergel has earned four free-kicks, too, and averaged 1.4 fouls won per game last season.

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