Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction: Fortress Stade Velodrome a hurdle too far for visitors

Two of the most impressive teams in Ligue 1 last month meet at the Stade Velodrome on Friday evening (KO, 20:00), as Olimpique de Marseille host RC Strasbourg Alsace in the opening fixture of the calendar year.

Marseille went unbeaten in the league in the month of December, collecting 13 points from five games to rise to sixth in the standings, and they made a winning start to 2024 on Sunday with a 1-0 Coupe de France victory over Thionville.

Strasbourg ensured their own progression in the cup on Saturday with a 4-0 win over Avoine, which followed three consecutive triumphs in Ligue 1 before Christmas.

Patrick Vieira's side have shot up to ninth in the league on the back of these results but they now face one of their toughest tests of the season against a side also managed by a legendary, tough-tackling midfielder in his heyday, Gennaro Gattuso.

Team News

There are surely few teams hit as hard by the Africa Cup of Nations as Marseille. Les Phoceens are without seven players as a result of the tournament, which starts this week and concludes next month.

Ismaila Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye, Amine Harit, Azzedine Ounahi, Chancel Mbemba, Pape Gueye and Simon Ngapandouetnbu are all away for African football's showpiece event in the Ivory Coast, and their absences probably told on Sunday as Marseille toiled to a slender win over lower-league opposition.

With the squad stretched, there are likely to be minimal changes from that tie, though Jonathan Clauss could slot into the side on either flank. Brazilian attacker Luis Henrique made his first appearance for Marseille in over 18 months against Thionville, having spent time on loan back in his homeland with Botafogo, and he will also hope to be in contention for a start.

Strasbourg made several changes for their cup tie last weekend, with the likes of goalkeeper Matz Sels, Junior Mwanga, Frederic Guilbert, Marvin Senaya and Lucas Perrin all set to return to the starting XI.

Lebo Mothiba is still injured, though, and will miss Friday's fixture, as will Thomas Delaine and Ismael Doukoure.

Defender Saidou Sow, who has only played once for Strasbourg this term, is on international duty at AFCON with Guinea.

Match Odds

Marseille are 8/15 to record a fourth consecutive league win at home on Friday, with the draw at 16/5 and a victory for the visitors priced at 5/1.

Both teams scored a goal apiece in the reverse fixture in November and it's 10/11 for BTTS - Yes in Marseille.

Marseille and under 3.5 goals @ 11/10

The host's squad has been decimated by AFCON, but home comforts should take them far on Friday. Marseille are unbeaten at the Stade Velodrome in all competitions this season, and 20 points at home in Ligue 1 is only beaten by PSG (22) and Nice (21), who have both played a game more.

A stunningly resolute defence - Marseille have conceded just twice in eight league games at home - has been crucial to their record, while only three teams have scored more on their own patch than Les Phoceens (14).

Only one stadium - Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz) - has seen as few goals (16) as the Stade Velodrome, though, with an average of two goals scored every game. Even those numbers have been boosted by the last two matches there, as Marseille beat Clermont 2-1 on the back of a 3-0 victory over Lyon.

Strasbourg should give Marseille a run for their money given their recent form and the latter's selection issues but, ultimately, Gattuso's side should pull through at home, and under 3.5 goals looks even more likely when looking at the visitor's record on the road - all eight of Strasbourg's away games have seen three or fewer goals scored.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score anytime @ 23/20

It was a tough start to life at Marseille for Aubameyang who, despite finding the net with relative ease in European games, only managed one goal in Ligue 1 before December, but the ex-Arsenal striker is really starting to hit his stride now.

Four goals in the first three league games of last month marks him as one of the most in-form forwards in the division, despite firing blanks in the last two.

The 34-year-old also hit the winner in Sunday's Coupe de France victory, and he should relish the pressure of being Marseille's main man on Friday, particularly with the likes of Sarr and Ndiaye out. Their absences should also see him play the majority, if not all, of the 90 minutes.

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