Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley Prediction: 5/2 Darwin at the double

Arne Slot lost just one game in the whole of 2024, going unbeaten with former club Feyenoord during the first half of the calendar year before suffering just a single defeat, against Nottingham Forest (0-1), in his first six months as Liverpool boss. The Dutchman equalled that tally on January 8 as his side lost 1-0 to Tottenham Hotspur in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final tie, and that came three days after a disappointing 2-2 draw against Manchester United.

Slot, then, will be desperate to see the Reds return to winning ways at Anfield on Saturday (12:15, ITV1) when they host League 2 outfit Accrington Stanley in the third round of the FA Cup. Read below for my Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, to find out whether I'm backing a routine victory for the Premier League leaders or the fourth-tier side to spring a surprise on Merseyside.

Team News

Following Wednesday's Carabao Cup tie at Spurs and with a trip to Nottingham Forest in the Premier League just around the corner on Tuesday, Slot is expected to make wholesale changes to his starting XI on Saturday and the likes of Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Alexis Mac Allister and Mohamed Salah could be left out of the squad completely.

Caoimhin Kelleher will replace Alisson in goal and at right-back and right centre-back could be Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah respectively, with both players likely to be the only ones making back-to-back starts. Bradley only recently returned to action following injury and will be looking to build up his match sharpness while Slot will be keen to hand Alexander-Arnold some rest ahead of Tuesday.

Quansah, who was forced off after half an hour in midweek through illness, is another looking to up his minutes on the pitch after playing fourth fiddle to Van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez this season. Konate only appeared as a late substitute on Wednesday but appears unlikely to feature this weekend.

Wataru Endo, who came on for Quansah at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and played alongside Van Dijk at centre-back, could partner the 21-year-old at the heart of defence against Accrington. At left-back, Andy Robertson could come in for Kostas Tsimikas.

Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa are expected to make only their second starts of the season on Saturday and will be joined in the lineup by Darwin Nunez. Dominik Szoboszlai could also start after illness kept him out of Liverpool's previous three matches, but an ankle injury is likely to deprive Tyler Morton the opportunity of a rare appearance, so James McConnell could get the nod in midfield instead.

Trey Nyoni is also in line for a start after playing from the off against Southampton in the Carabao Cup last month, while Jayden Danns, Rio Ngumoha and James Norris are other youngsters in with a chance of earning minutes.

Football Odds

Accrington are without Seb Quirk for Saturday's trip to Merseyside, while Jake Batty and Dara Costelloe are rated as doubtful.

Two players to keep an eye on are on-loan Everton goalkeeper Billy Crellin and lifelong Liverpool fan Josh Woods, who went viral for his third-round draw celebrations last month.

Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley Odds

It will come as a surprise to absolutely no one that Liverpool are huge favourites (1/28) to win this tie in regulation time and avoid extra time which would be brought on by a draw (14/1). If you fancy the shock of all shocks, you can back an Accrington victory in 90 minutes at 40/1; Stanley are 25/1 just to win the tie by any means, too.

Both teams to score is priced at 6/4 and over 3.5 total goals at 1/2, while Salah (2/5), Nunez (8/15), Diogo Jota (3/5) and Danns (8/13) lead the anytime goalscorer market, where you can find Stanley's first player, Jimmy Knowles, at 13/2.

Player To Score Two or More Goals - Darwin Nunez (LIV) @ 5/2

This isn't a particularly big game for Liverpool, who have much more important fights ahead, not least on Tuesday at the City Ground. But, for Nunez, I think Saturday is huge.

The Uruguayan has scored just once in his last 13 appearances for club and country - the opener in Liverpool's 2-1 win over Southampton in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals on December 18, with his last goal in the Premier League way back on November 9 when the Reds beat Aston Villa 2-0 at Anfield.

Nunez has only started half (six) of Liverpool's 12 matches since and just one of their last five. He was also an unused substitute in the December 29 thrashing of West Ham United (0-5) at the London Stadium and was only introduced in the 87th minute of his side's 6-3 Premier League annihilation of Spurs a week earlier.

The 25-year-old could really do with a strong performance and a few goals to lift his confidence ahead of an important second half of the season for Liverpool which he can play an important role in if he shows Slot that he can be relied upon. He hasn't really done that so far, netting just four times in 25 appearances under the Dutchman, but a strike on his last cup start against Southampton was proof that he can do the business in front of goal without the likes of Salah and Luis Diaz alongside him.

Nunez was always unlikely to start Tuesday's game against Forest but a fifth booking of the Premier League campaign, accrued at home to Manchester United last Sunday, saw him pick up a one-game ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition, and thus he should start and finish Saturday's cup tie to keep himself ticking over.

If he plays the full 90, as I expect him to, you would really hope that he can find the net at least once against a team three divisions below Liverpool.

I'm going to go one further and back Nunez to bag a brace as I think he will be well up for this contest knowing that he is unable to play again for seven days.

The former Benfica forward came off the bench at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in midweek and hit the target with all three of his efforts so he's managed to get his eye in before Saturday's visit of Accrington to Anfield, and he will back himself to get on the scoresheet multiple times in another bid to impress Slot.

Player to Receive a Card - Wataru Endo (LIV) @ 9/1

The expectation is that Liverpool will dominate this tie and cede little of the ball to their lower-league opponents, who are currently 19th in League 2, just five points above the relegation zone. As a result, the odds of a Reds player receiving a card on Saturday have dropped dramatically compared to a normal fixture, with Bradley (7/1) considered their most likely man to go into the referee's notebook.

Japanese midfielder Endo, who could operate in central defence, is down at 9/1, which I think provides real value considering his style of play and position. Of course, in midfield, where he could still feature, the 31-year-old would be expected to make more challenges and commit more fouls than if he lined up in defence.

However, with the Reds expected to be so dominant at Anfield, we can assume their line will be even higher than usual and Endo could be left exposed if Accrington can mount any counter-attacks. The former Stuttgart captain is a tremendous player but he's not the quickest and has a propensity to dive into challenges.

Endo is averaging 0.6 fouls per game in this season's Premier League despite averaging just 10 minutes per match having failed to start a top-flight fixture under Slot while in the Carabao Cup, where three of his four appearances have been as a starter, he is averaging a foul per game. He's been carded once in that competition this term, matching his output in the 2023/24 Carabao Cup, while in last season's Premier League, he was cautioned 10 times in 29 appearances (20 starts).

Saturday's hosts could keep things clean but we've seen before that lower-league opposition can ruffle feathers and with the Reds fielding a weakened lineup, featuring players who are unfamiliar with each other, at least in a competitive sense, Stanley could cause a few problems for Slot's side, and an experienced player like Endo could be forced to take alternative action to stop the visitors from bearing down on goal and causing any embarrassment to Liverpool.

Offers

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