Leeds United vs Millwall Prediction: Lions can handle Elland Road intensity

There's a spicy FA Cup fourth-round tie taking place on Saturday lunchtime (12:15) as Leeds United and Millwall face off at Elland Road. The EFL Championship clubs have already met once this season back in November, but that was in league action as the Lions won 1-0 to claim all three points on home soil.

Below is my Leeds United vs Millwall prediction, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, as these two great rivals go head to head for a place in the fifth round of England's premier cup competition.

Team News

Leeds United's only injury concern is Patrick Bamford, who has missed his side's last seven games with a hamstring problem.

With automatic promotion to the Premier League the club's priority this season, head coach Daniel Farke could make several changes to the team that started Wednesday's 2-0 win at Coventry City.

Karl Darlow, Sam Byram, Joshua Guilavogui, Joe Rothwell, Largue Ramazani, Wilfried Gnonto and Mateo Joseph all started the third-round victory over Harrogate Town (1-0) on January 11 and with all seven players starting on the bench in midweek, they could all come into Farke's thinking to begin Saturday's game.

Football Odds

Millwall have had a full week to prepare for this cup tie so boss Alex Neil, who wasn't in charge the last time these sides met, could name a full-strength starting XI, although he will have Wednesday's trip to Plymouth Argyle in the back of his mind.

Several players definitely won't feature, though, with Calum Scanlon (hamstring), Ryan Leonard (calf) and Danny McNamara (knee) all out injured.

Shaun Hutchinson and Aidomo Emakhu aren't far away from featuring but this weekend may come too soon for both, while it remains to be seen whether Femi Azeez and Josh Coburn, both back on the grass following spells out on the sidelines, are considered fit enough for selection on Saturday.

Leeds United vs Millwall Odds

Leeds United are 4/9 to triumph inside regulation time on Saturday, giving the Whites an implied win probability of 69.2%, or you can back the Whites to win the tie by any means at 1/5. Millwall, meanwhile, are 100/30 just to advance to the fifth round, or 13/2 (13.3%) to win without the need for extra time and/or penalties.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is priced at 16/5, both teams to score at 6/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 13/8

We've seen a few meetings between these sides get tasty over recent years with half of the last six - stretching back to March 2019 - seeing at least 70 booking points awarded, including last season's league fixture at Elland Road when Millwall were shown four yellows (40 booking points - 10 for each caution) and Leeds handed three (30 booking points).

Just three yellows, and 30 booking points, were flashed at The Den in November, but Saturday's game is a winner-takes-all tie in the cup, so I think we can expect even more flash points in West Yorkshire.

Millwall showed some spikiness in a recent 1-0 win at Luton Town, receiving four cautions in the final 20 or so minutes of the match at Kenilworth Road, and their tally of 59 yellow cards puts them joint-11th in the Championship disciplinary table alongside the Hatters.

In a grudge match for both sides, with a spot in the FA Cup fifth round at stake, I can see tensions boiling over on Saturday, and plenty of cards - and therefore booking points - being flashed in both directions.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Draw or Millwall & Yes @ 100/30

Both sides rank among the best defensive units in the Championship with only Burnley (nine) conceding fewer goals than Leeds (19), while Millwall's tally of 27 is the joint-fifth-best record.

The Whites have kept six straight clean sheets, starting with a shutout in the third round against Harrogate before racking up five consecutively in the Championship, while the Lions have kept three in their last six games.

However, with the hosts' starting XI likely to be heavily rotated, and the visitors fresh after a week off, I'm expecting Neil's side to find some joy on Saturday, and I think they can score at least once and take the tie to extra time at a minimum.

Millwall have won their last three games, the first two of which were away from home, and only Hull City (0-1) have managed to get the better of them in seven matches since a New Year's Day defeat to Oxford United (0-1). The Lions are yet to lose on their travels under Neil and will pose a tough test for Leeds on Saturday.

The Whites, though, will certainly expect to get on the scoresheet themselves with only Scott Parker's Burnley, keeping clean sheets like prime Milan, able to keep them out in the last 14 games, and the Clarets are also the only team to stop Farke's side from scoring at home in the Championship.

I can see the visitors finding some early joy and Farke turning to his bench in hope of a recovery, so the double chance result on Millwall and both teams to score appeals greatly here at 100/30.

Offers

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