Spain vs Argentina Prediction: Low-scoring final on the cards?

Having only previously met once in a competitive football match, Spain and Argentina face off in the 2026 World Cup final in New Jersey on Sunday.

From Argentina’s 2-1 victory in the group stage of the 1966 World Cup to a 6-1 Spain win in the most recent friendly in 2018, there is relatively little in the history books to indicate how this game may pan out. The stakes could not be higher as the 2010 and 2022 champions clash in the afternoon heat at MetLife Stadium.

You can check out Mark Sochon's full Spain vs Argentina Prediction down below.

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In terms of individual quality, this Spanish team is not of the level of the side that dominated international football and won three trophies between 2008 and 2012. When La Roja won the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, they could count on world-class players in virtually every position.

Of the players that started Spain’s semi-final victory over France this summer, only Rodri and Lamine Yamal could truly be viewed in that light. Five of their other starters in Dallas played for clubs that finished 10th or lower in their domestic leagues last season. Fabián Ruiz, Álex Baena, Dani Olmo and Pau Cubarsí were the other four, and none of those players are among the outright stars for their clubs.

Despite that, Luis de la Fuente has created a club-like feel to this Spanish set-up, one that perhaps only Sunday’s opponents Argentina can rival among the leading international sides.

Even allowing for the injury problems of Nico Williams and the untimely loss of form of Pedri, there remains a real balance to this Spanish side. De la Fuente’s team were outstanding in the semi-finals, restricting a star-studded French attack to just a few glimpses of goal across a humbling 90 minutes for Les Bleus.

A 2-0 victory marked Spain’s best performance at this World Cup. As was the case in 2010, when they started with a defeat to Switzerland, La Roja have grown into the tournament. Since drawing their opening match 0-0 against Cabo Verde this summer, they’ve reeled off six straight victories in regulation time.

Argentina’s progress has been considerably choppier since they comfortably won Group J. They too found it tough going against tournament debutants Cabo Verde, with a 111th-minute own goal needed to seal a 3-2 extra-time victory for the defending champions.

Lionel Scaloni’s team had to dig even deeper against African opposition again in the Round of 16. Trailing Egypt 2-0 heading into the final 15 minutes, Lionel Messi led a dramatic late comeback as La Albiceleste fought back to win 3-2.

For long periods in their quarter-final and semi-final ties, Argentina also struggled to impose themselves. However, they battled through with two extra-time strikes seeing off the 10 men of Switzerland in the last eight, before 85th and 92nd-minute goals did for England in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Their success in North America has often mirrored their run to glory in Qatar four years ago. There have been slices of luck and decisions that have gone in their favour along the way. It’s not a flawless side, but it’s one that competes until the very end across the pitch.

Being able to call upon the services of arguably the greatest player of all time also helps. At 39, Messi is having a sensational World Cup. He has scored or assisted in every game. As the tournament has worn on, the legendary forward has shifted into more of a creative role, with his ability to find space on the right flank the catalyst for the two late goals Argentina scored against England.

Team News

Spain’s dominant display against France on Tuesday means an unchanged lineup is expected in the final. De la Fuente has no fitness concerns and should field the same side for the third match in a row, following his decision to choose Fabián over Pedri in each game since the round-of-16 win over Portugal.

Argentina also got through their semi-final unscathed in terms of injuries and suspensions. However, Scaloni will have some more thinking to do than his opposite number.

Rodrigo De Paul and Lautaro Martínez both had an impact after coming off the bench against the Three Lions. The former could potentially take Giuliano Simeone’s place in the side, while Martínez offers an alternative option to Julián Alvarez up front.

World Cup Odds

Spain vs Argentina Odds

Spain are the favourites to win on Sunday, with the European champions priced at 5/4 to win the game in regulation time. They’re also available at 8/13 to lift the trophy.

Alternatively, you can back the Draw at 2/1, while Argentina are on offer at 12/5 in the Match Result market. The South Americans are priced at 5/4 to win the World Cup.

If you’re expecting goals, Both teams to score is available at 5/6. You can back Spain to score over 1.5 goals at 6/4, while La Roja are on offer at 23/10 to win the match to nil. That has been a winning bet in five of their last six fixtures.

Argentina's games have tended to come alive after the break, and you can back Over 1.5 second-half goals at 11/8. The holders are also priced at 6/5 to win either half.

Their hopes will largely depend on Messi, who is available at 4/5 to score or assist. You can also back the 39-year-old to score anytime at 11/8, while he’s given a 17/2 chance of scoring and assisting in what will surely be his final World Cup appearance.

On the opposite side, Yamal will be hoping to make his mark as he lines up against Messi, one of his footballing idols. The teenager won a penalty in the semi-final, but has only scored once at this World Cup. He’s priced at 11/8 to score or assist in this game, while you can back Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytime at 29/20.

Team with most booking points - Argentina @ 4/5

Argentina’s physical approach in the semi-final earned them three bookings and few friends in England. Four days on, I can’t see them being any less combative.

Scaloni’s priority will be to disrupt Spain in midfield and prevent them getting the kind of control in the centre of the pitch that made life so difficult for France earlier in the week. Their chances of getting Messi on the ball in dangerous areas may largely hinge on their ability to win the ball back high up the pitch, while also limiting Rodri’s influence.

Only two teams at this World Cup have picked up more yellow cards than Argentina, while Spain rank joint-15th with only six bookings in seven matches. I’m backing the South Americans to finish with the most booking points at 8/11.

Spain to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 7/4

Spain have a slight advantage in that they’ve had a smoother run to the final, having not been taken to extra time, while Argentina have twice needed to play 120 minutes. La Roja have also had an extra day to prepare for the final.

To their credit, a relatively old Argentina side has still managed to find energy in the latter stages of games when their opponents have often tired. However, there is a risk that they’ll finally run out of steam here in what is their fifth knockout match in the space of just 16 days.

Overall, La Roja are the more complete team. They’ve conceded just one goal at this World Cup, while Argentina have let in eight in their four knockout fixtures. The value looks to lie with backing Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals, a winning bet in each of their past five games.