Senegal vs Iraq Prediction: Silky Sarr to dance his way to goal

 | Friday 26th June 2026, 8:00

Friday 26th June 2026, 8:00

Senegal's FIFA World Cup campaign has not been ideal so far but a victory against Iraq on Friday in Group I (3pm local/8pm BST, ITV4) would give them a chance of progressing to the knockout stage. Their opponents also have an outside shot of qualifying should they come out on top in Toronto.

Read on for my Senegal vs Iraq predictions, including the latest team news and match odds.

Senegal vs Iraq Betting Tips

  • Home Team Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ EVENS
  • Anytime Goalscorer - Ismaila Sarr @ 23/20

*Odds correct at time of publishing

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2026 World Cup
Group I
PosTeamPWDLFAGDPtsForm
1
France 22006156
W W
2
Norway 22007346
W W
3
Senegal 200236-30
L L
4
Iraq 200217-60
L L

*Click here for the latest World Cup Odds

Team News

Senegal will miss goalkeeper Edouard Mendy on Friday following the knee injury he picked up against Norway last time out, with Mory Diaw in line to replace the former Chelsea man.

Boss Pape Thiaw has a big call to make ahead of this clash. Experienced defender Kalidou Koulibaly made a couple of costly errors in the defeat against Norway, so he might be demoted for the Iraq match.

Mamadou Sarr and Abdoulaye Seck would likely tussle for Koulibaly's place in the back line.

Ismaila Sarr made up for his glaring miss against France on matchday one with a brace against Norway, and he should continue in attack alongside Nicolas Jackson and Sadio Mane.

After going off with an injury against France, Aymen Hussein is a doubt for Iraq. If he were to miss out, Graham Arnold could consider handing Mohanad Ali his first start at the World Cup. The attacker's 27 goals for his country is only bettered by Hussein (34).

Senegal vs Iraq Predicted Lineups

  • Senegal: Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; Camara, I Gueye, P Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mane
  • Iraq: Basil; Ali, Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismail, Al-Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, Al-Hamadi, Bayesh

Senegal vs Iraq Odds

Betfred is making it very clear that they are expecting a Senegal victory, with the Lions of Teranga as short as 1/4 to come out on top.

The draw can be covered at 5/1 with Iraw priced at 11/1 to come away with the three points.

Both teams have scored in Senegal's two Group I fixtures to date, and BTTS - Yes can be backed at 11/10 on this occasion.

Senegal vs Iraq Stats

  • Iraq have conceded at least 3 goals in their two group games so far
  • Ismaila Sarr has 3 goals in his past 5 appearances for Senegal, including a brace against Norway last time out

Home Team Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ EVENS

Two defeats has left Senegal on the brink of elimination. Only a victory against Iraq will do in their bid to progress to the round of 32. It should help having what is deemed the easiest opponent last, but the Lions of Teranga shouldn't underestimate their competitors.

On paper, there is a gulf in class between the two squads, and this should be evident out on the pitch in Toronto. Senegal have a dangerous front three in Sarr, Jackson and Mane, while there are attacking stars in reserve who can cause problems for Iraq.

Considering Iraq have conceded seven goals across their two fixtures (four against Norway and three against France) in Group I to date, I'm backing Senegal to keep up the trend and score at least three times on Friday at EVENS, which has an implied probability of 50%.

Senegal vs Iraq - Home Team Total Goals
Over 2.5

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Anytime Goalscorer - Ismaila Sarr @ 23/20

Although it had no impact on the result, Sarr's brace against Norway showed improvement from the winger, who missed a great opportunity against France on matchday one.

He now has three goals in his previous five appearances for Senegal, and I believe that he'll play a key role for his country again on Friday. Iraq's defensive vulnerabilities have been clear to see, and Sarr's exploits over the last year with Crystal Palace suggest he can continue to have more of an impact in the final third.

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Senegal vs Iraq - Anytime Goalscorer
Ismaila Sarr

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Senegal vs Iraq Score Prediction

  • Senegal 3-1 Iraq

With the pressure on, I'm expecting Thiaw's men to rise to the occasions and defeat Iraq. I think they have the players to win by a comfortable margin but considering they're without a clean sheet since their tournament debut back in 2002, I'm going to give Iraq a goal.

Senegal vs Iraq - Correct Score
Senegal 3-1

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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