Portugal vs Spain Prediction: If it looks like a draw, it could well be an 11/4 draw

This is one of the most eagerly awaited games of the tournament so far between two well-matched teams who know each other very well, with the game starting on Monday at 8PM and live on BBC One.  

Jamie Pacheco thinks extra time or penalties may be needed to split them, so he likes the 90-minute draw, while there are also two 4/1 shots of interest.  Let's check out his Portugal vs Spain Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

Portugal  

'The jury is still out regarding this Portugal side.'

That's what I wrote ahead of their Last 32 match against Croatia a few days ago and after what happened in it, I've no reason to change the sentence above because, well, the jury is still very much out.  

On the one hand, they're through and showed some good fighting spirit to get back in the game and then win it. On the other hand, they didn't play that well, benefited from a fortunate penalty after a silly and unnecessary foul in the Croatia box opened the door, and were also fortunate that Croatia's late, late 'equaliser' ended up not disallowed after the faintest of touches resulted in an off-side decision going in Portugal's favour. 

They certainly have keeper Diogo Costa to thank for keeping them in the game and quite why he didn't get the Player of the Match award ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo – all CR7 did pretty much all game was convert a penalty - is anyone's guess. Well, here's my guess: it's in FIFA's marketing and commercial interests to give the award to the biggest names so they can interview them in the aftermath, rather than to a goalkeeper.    

It will be interesting to see if there are any changes here. It would be some end to CR7's international career if he was left out of the starting line-up with match-winner Gonçalo Ramos picked ahead of him, but that's not out of the question. Pedro Neto had a quiet game, and any one of João Félix, Bernardo Silva or Francisco Conceição could get a game in his place.  

Likely XI: Costa, Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes, J Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes, Leao, Felix/Bernardo/Neto, Ronaldo.  

Spain 

Spain have gone quietly about their business ever since that first shock 0-0 draw with Cabo Verde first up.  

There was a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in their next game, followed by a low-key 1-0 victory over Uruguay in their final Group game and then a comprehensive 3-0 win over Austria in the Last 32.  

You will have noticed that they're yet to concede a goal, the only team other than Mexico to do so, though admittedly the co-hosts also won all their games in the process.  

The man grabbing most of the headlines is Mikel Oyarzabal who already has four goals to his name but the one who's really impressed me has been Marc Cucurella, excellent in defence and creator of chances at the other end. He was also unlucky to have had a goal ruled out on Thursday.  

Make no mistake, though, this is an excellent side, well-organised, disciplined and so far impossible to score against.   

Likely XI: Simon, Porro, Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsi, Baena, Rodri, Olmo, Yamal, Pedri, Oyarzabal.  

*You can check out all of the live World Cup Odds across all of our markets over on betfred.com

Match Winner Odds 

Spain are the justified favourites at 10/11, with Portugal 11/4 and the draw 11/4.  

That's based on what we've seen so far from both teams at this tournament, but historically, things have been extremely close.  

Since a 4-0 Portugal win in a friendly back in 2010, there were five consecutive draws between them, followed by a 1-0 win for Spain and then another draw in last year's Nations League final (2-2), which Portugal then won on penalties.    

With that in mind and Portugal's potential to improve, yet another draw looks the pick at 11/4. We were pretty unlucky the other day when we had Portugal to win in extra-time (15/2) and on penalties (12/1) only for that late Croatia goal to be ruled out as I think Ronaldo and co would have been strong favourites to progress one way or the other, so let's see if we come good this time.   

They'll probably have to score to get it and when we consider that Spain haven't played particularly good teams so far, they should be good for one. That said, 0-0 isn't the worst price in the world at 11/1 if you really want to push the boat out. But we don't, so the 11/4 will do us fine.  

*You can bet on this match and check out all of our Portugal vs Spain Odds and Betting Markets over on betfred.com

To Score or Assist / Player Shown a card  

And we'll have two more wagers on this one.  

That man Cucurella has been a real goal threat going forward – two assists, two attempts on target (three shots in total, all inside the penalty area) from left back– and looks a decent price at 4/1 to score or assist here. It's probably likely to be the latter, if at all, but you never know.  

Finally, a word on Ronaldo but not to score (or assist). He's actually been pretty well-behaved by his standards so far and kept histrionics to a minimum but this may be a game too far for him to keep his cool, especially if Portugal are under pressure.  

4/1 that he gets booked here looks decent, all things considered. But we'll have half stakes on both of these.  

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025/26 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):   

• Points Staked: 41.1      
• Points Returned: 33.82       
• Current P/L: -10.78