FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D: USA reliant on ‘Captain America’ catching fire

The USA, Turkey, Paraguay and Australia make up a competitive Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.

Read below for my World Cup 2026 Group D predictions where I pick out each team's key player and their chances of winning the group.

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USA

FIFA world ranking: 16

To win the group: 11/8

The quarter-finals in 2002 is as good as it has gotten for the USA at World Cups this century, with their last three appearances in 2010, 2014 and 2022 seeing the Stars and Stripes exit at the last-16 stage.

Hopes are high this time around, though, as the country hosts the tournament alongside Canada and Mexico.

In Mauricio Pochettino, US Soccer hired a head coach with a big reputation back in 2024, even if the Argentine had endured underwhelming spells at Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea.

At Tottenham Hotspur, Pochettino had inspired a run to the 2019 UEFA Champions League final, and supporters were hoping he could do something similar with the USA at a home World Cup.

It's not been smooth sailing for the 54-year-old, though, with mixed performances and results across friendlies and last year's Gold Cup, where they were beaten 2-1 by Mexico on home soil in the final.

This year, they've been thrashed 5-2 by Belgium and 2-0 by Portugal in friendlies, so there's a lot to work on between now and the start of the tournament.

Key player: Christian Pulisic

AC Milan forward Christian Pulisic registered 20 Serie A goal involvements in the 2023/24 (12 goals, eight assists) and 2024/25 (11 goals, nine assists) seasons, and while he's failed to hit those heights this term, he's still provided a respectable 12 (eight goals, four assists) in 29 appearances, although no goals and just two assists this calendar year suggests he's not in the best of form heading into a potentially career-defining World Cup.

'Captain America' will have the weight of a nation behind him and he will be given the keys in attack, with everything expected to go through the 27-year-old.

Pulisic has a good goalscoring record at international level, netting 32 times in 84 senior caps, and after bagging his first World Cup goal in 2022, he'll be keen to add more this year.

Prediction: Group D is one of the most difficult groups to call, with all four teams standing a chance of winning it.

The USA will certainly be eyeing up top spot, and they'll be looking to make a dent in the knockouts, too.

I can see Pochettino steering his side to the last 16, but that might be where their journey ends against one of the elite footballing nations.

Football Odds

Turkey

FIFA world ranking: 22

To win the group: 15/8

Turkey finished third at the 2002 World Cup in South Korea & Japan, but they've not been back since, failing to qualify for five consecutive tournaments before beating Romania and Kosovo in the play-offs earlier this year to secure their spot in North America this summer.

Head coach Vincenzo Montella led the Crescent-Stars to the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, and hopes are high for them again this year with some exciting midfield and attack options.

Key player: Kenan Yildiz

Arda Guler probably would've been my pick here, but with the Real Madrid playmaker recently sustaining an injury, I'm opting for a player who will definitely start the tournament, fitness permitting, in Juventus' Kenan Yildiz.

The 21-year-old struck three times in seven World Cup qualifiers for Turkey and has directly contributed to 20 goals this season for the Old Lady (11 goals, nine assists).

Yildiz is in poor form, failing to score in his last nine games for club and country, but he's a player that can cause defenders nightmares, and I fancy him to pose serious problems in North America.

Prediction: Turkey are infamous for being the worst 'dark horse' ever at Euro 2020 when they lost all three group games against Italy, Wales and Switzerland, but they took the following Euros by storm, only bowing out in the last eight to the Netherlands.

With Yildiz and Guler in attack, supported behind by Inter's Hakan Calhanoglu, there is plenty of creativity in this Turkey team; the main issue will be keeping the ball out of their own net.

I think they've got a real chance of winning Group D, though, and as long as they don't face one of the big boys in the round of 32, a run to the last 16 is more than possible.

Paraguay

FIFA world ranking: 40

To win the group: 10/3

Paraguay hadn't qualified for the World Cup since reaching the quarter-finals in South Africa 2010, but they're back again after finishing sixth, level on 28 points with Colombia (second), Uruguay (third) and Brazil (fifth) in the South American section.

A miserly defence was key to their qualification, with only Ecuador (five) conceding fewer goals after 18 rounds of fixtures than Paraguay (10).

Gustavo Alfaro will need his forward players to step up, though, after La Albirroja scored just 14 goals in qualifying, with only two players, Antonio Sanabria (four) and Julio Enciso (three), netting more than twice.

Key Player: Diego Gomez

Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Diego Gomez has enjoyed a fruitful first full season with the Seagulls, scoring 10 goals in 36 appearances across all competitions, including five in 31 Premier League games.

The 23-year-old also hit a hat-trick in the Carabao Cup and has struck some spectacular goals under Fabian Hurzeler, but he's only scored three times in 23 senior caps for his country, so he'll be keen to improve on that record this summer.

Prediction: Alfaro will make his side tough to break down, but I don't see much creativity in their forward line, and they may struggle to breach the back lines of the USA, Turkey and Australia.

While I don't think they will get embarrassed, they're destined for a fourth-place finish in the group, in my opinion.

World Cup Odds

Australia

FIFA world ranking: 27

To win the group: 13/2

Australia changed manager in the early stages of their qualifying campaign, taking out Graham Arnold, who led the Socceroos to the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup, for former defender Tony Popovic, who won five and drew three of his qualifiers to help his country finish second in Group C and qualify for a sixth consecutive finals.

Key Player: Mohamed Toure

Mohamed Toure was hardly prolific for Danish side Randers, netting just four times in 17 Superliga appearances during the first half of the season, but Norwich City spotted his immense potential and brought him to Carrow Road in January, and from there, it's been mostly sunshine and rainbows.

The 22-year-old has scored nine goals in 11 EFL Championship appearances for the Canaries, including a couple of hat-tricks, and was on target in his sole FA Cup appearance to take his tally for the club to 10 in 12 games.

Toure only played once in qualifying for Australia, but he looks the most likely to lead their forward line at this year's World Cup, and he'll certainly carry a lot of confidence with him to North America.

Prediction: As was the case under Arnold, Australia are resolute in defence, but they're less effective going forward, although the additions of Toure and Nestory Irankunda in attack should help.

Supporters will hope that Popovic doesn't revert to type and play the same tired old players, because if he does, there is a ceiling for this side, and it's the first knockout stage.

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