Plymouth vs Liverpool Prediction: Pilgrims to pipe up in FA Cup exit

Plymouth Argyle were handed a glamour tie in the FA Cup fourth round when they were drawn to face Liverpool at Home Park on Sunday (15:00, ITV 1). The EFL Championship strugglers beat West Bromwich Albion 2-1 last Saturday but remain bottom of England's second-tier league while their visitors, who booked a place in next month's Carabao Cup final with a 4-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday, lead the Premier League standings by six points and will arrive into Devon as heavy favourites to progress to the fifth round of this competition.

Below is my Plymouth vs Liverpool prediction, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Joe Edwards (hamstring), Brendan Galloway (hip) and Kornel Szucs (muscle) are all out injured for the hosts, who could hand a debut to deadline-day signing Malachi Boateng on Sunday.

Fellow winter transfer window arrivals Maksym Talovierov and Nikola Katic both played their first minutes for the Pilgrims against Albion and could make successive starts.

Football Odds

Liverpool head coach Arne Slot has confirmed vice-captain Trent-Alexander Arnold will likely miss the trip to Home Park as he continues his recovery from a thigh injury, while Tyler Morton has been ruled out with a shoulder issue.

With a midweek trip to Goodison Park to face Everton on the horizon, Slot is expected to make wholesale changes to his starting XI. Only Caoimhin Kelleher, who started ahead of the rested Alisson Becker against Spurs on Thursday, seems assured of keeping his place in the lineup.

Joe Gomez, Jarell Quansah and Kostas Tsimikas appear certainties to start in defence, with Wataru Endo an option to fill in alongside the trio at the back if right-back Conor Bradley is rested.

In midfield, Alexis Mac Allister could begin the game after being deployed as a second-half substitute earlier in the week, and the Argentine should be joined in the starting XI by Harvey Elliott, Federico Chiesa, Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota. 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha started Liverpool's third-round win over Accrington Stanley (4-0) on January 11 and will hope to make his second appearance for the Reds on Sunday.

Trey Nyoni and James McConnell are another two that could come into Slot's thinking having appeared off the bench in the previous round.

The likes of Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo could all be left on Merseyside.

Plymouth vs Liverpool Odds

Plymouth are unbeaten in their last two games but it's no surprise to see the Pilgrims priced at 16/1 to triumph inside regulation time on Sunday, odds which offer an implied probability of 5.9%. Liverpool, meanwhile, are as low as 1/7 (87.5%).

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time at Home Park, can be backed at 7/1, and the hosts to win by any means is available at 9/1.

Both teams to score is 6/5 and over 3.5 total goals is 11/10.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Liverpool & Yes @ 7/4

It will be a surprise to absolutely no one that I'm tipping Liverpool to win on Sunday. The Reds have been dominant in every competition this season, streaking clear at the top of the Premier League, winning the league phase of the Uefa Champions League ahead of nearest challengers Barcelona, and securing a spot in next month's Carabao Cup final by beating Spurs 4-1 over two legs.

Plymouth, meanwhile, have endured a miserable campaign in the second tier, with Wayne Rooney paying the price for their poor results. The Manchester United great was sacked on New Year's Eve and eventually replaced by current incumbent Miron Muslic, who only took charge after the Pilgrims' 1-0 victory over Brentford in the FA Cup third round.

The Bosnian boss has had an interesting start to life in England, holding Oxford United to a 1-1 draw before a narrow defeat to Queens Park Rangers (0-1) and a heavy loss to Burnley (0-5). However, he's turned things around in the last couple of weeks, inspiring his side to a 2-2 draw at Sunderland on January 25 before overseeing his first win in charge against West Brom last Saturday.

Sunday is a completely different challenge, though, with Liverpool striking fear into Europe's best sides, let alone one bottom of the Championship.

It would be a big shock not to see the visitors emerge victorious from this game, but that doesn't mean it will be a walk in the park.

With Slot likely to make many changes, the Reds will surely lack the fluency of their first team, and that can only help the hosts in their bid to cause an upset.

While I don't see Plymouth even taking the tie to extra time, they will fancy their chances of at least getting on the scoresheet, something they have achieved in three of Muslic's five games as head coach, including the last two.

Liverpool kept a clean sheet in the third round but League 2 strugglers Accrington did pose a few problems at Anfield and with this tie taking place at Home Park, Plymouth could cause even more issues.

Player Scores Outside The Area - Federico Chiesa (LIV) @ 8/1

This is a fun market offered by Betfred that I can certainly see some value in this weekend.

With Plymouth likely to be forced deep into their own half, it may take some magic from one of Liverpool's attackers to unlock the home side's defence, and Chiesa could be the man to make it happen.

The Italian opened his Reds account in the previous round, coming off the bench and striking the ball from outside the penalty area past William Crellin in the Accrington net.

Chiesa is 7/5 to score anytime on Sunday but if you want to boost the odds, then 8/1 for the 27-year-old to convert from distance could be the way to go.

His most recent start, away to PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on January 29, saw him hit the target from long range in the fifth minute, and another strike from the edge of the box in the 40th minute was also saved by Walter Benitez, so he's showing the confident to shoot from distance and get his shots within the goal frame.

Offers

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