Derby vs Leeds Prediction: Rams to derail Leeds?

Derby County host Premier League side Leeds United in the Third Round of the FA Cup on Sunday (12:00 GMT, TNT Sports 1). Daniel Farke’s men lost in dramatic circumstances at Newcastle last time out, but they are looking good for survival in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, Derby are 13th in the Championship so may fancy a cup run. Below you can find my Derby vs Leeds prediction featuring team news and match odds. 

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Team News

Derby County boss John Eustace is expected to name a strong XI for this game, given they are mid-table in the Championship. After their 2-1 defeat to Wrexham last time out we can expect a couple of changes, with Andreas Weimann, Lewis Travis and Kayden Jackson all likely to feature from the off.

Ebou Adams may also come into the midfield after falling out of the side, as Eustace targets a place in the Fourth Round. 

Farke meanwhile, gave a detailed rundown of his team news in his latest press conference, and he explained that Jayden Bogle looks unlikely to return against his former club. 

“If it is risky, I wouldn’t do this so I think it will be more or less the same group of players available like for the last game. So Joe [Rodon] no setback during the game, of course he was a bit tired in the end of the game anyhow but no injuries.

“The only one who was struggling today a little bit was Sam Byram with some back problems, perhaps a bit more to do with the travelling lots of travelling anyhow.

“What I can confirm already, like we have also done in the earlier years in cup competition, that definitely we will rotate in the goalkeeper position and Karl Darlow will play in goal.”

Football Odds

Derby vs Leeds Odds

Derby are priced at 18/5 to win this game in 90 minutes, and the visitors are 4/5 to take victory, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. A draw after 90 minutes is 5/2, over 2.5 goals is 11/10 and BTTS is 10/11. 

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the favourite to continue his fine goalscoring form by scoring first at 3/1, while Piroe may be worth considering at 4/1. 

Derby to win @ 18/5

I know Farke spouted all the usual lines in his pre-match press conference, but I honestly think Leeds fans will be happy to get out of this competition as soon as possible this season. Eleven changes wouldn’t surprise me and Leeds don’t have a huge amount of depth, although Piroe will want to prove himself if he is given the nod up front. 

Meanwhile, the likes of Adams could actually improve this Derby midfield, and with the ‘Spygate’ history between these two clubs - I think Pride Park could be buzzing. I’m going to back the home side to cause a shock in the Third Round, despite the fact that they’ve only won four games at home in the Championship. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Patrick Agyemang to score first @ 15/2

With Derby taking my fancy in this game, I think we’ve got a good chance at landing a goalscorer at a big price for the home side. Patrick Agyemang joined for big money this summer from Charlotte FC, and although he had a slow start after a hernia issue, he now looks like a top striker at this level. 

With Carlton Morris out he has stepped up to the plate, scoring six goals in 22 Championship appearances so far. I hope Eustace will give him the nod up front once again, and if that is the case, I think he’s a big price to open the scoring against what is set to be a changed Leeds back three.