Chelsea vs Port Vale Prediction: Waine to cause pain for Chelsea?

We’ve got four FA Cup quarter-finals coming our way this weekend and one of the most eye-catching ties sees Chelsea host League 1 strugglers Port Vale (17:15 BST, BBC One). 

It would be the upset of all upsets if the Valiants made it to Wembley, but the FA Cup is all about shocks. Below you can find my Chelsea vs Port Vale predictions featuring team news and more.

Team News

Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior is likely to ring the changes for this tie, although he will have to take the international commitments into account. Benoit Badiashile and Josh Acheampong could be named as the centre-back pairing while Romeo Lavia could feature in midfield along with Dario Essugo, who performed well off the bench at Wrexham in the last round. 

Given Joao Pedro started for Brazil, we can expect Liam Delap to lead the line again in this one, with Alejandro Garnacho likely to feature on the left wing. 

Port Vale boss Jon Brady saw his side beaten 4-0 in the league last time out, but he is set to unleash cup star Ben Waine once again. He’s missed out in recent weeks but has scored three goals in his last four FA Cup appearances, including the winner against Sunderland in the last round. 

Andre Gray and Onel Hernandez are two players with Premier League experience in the Vale squad, and they could feature in some capacity at Stamford Bridge. 

Football Odds

Chelsea vs Port Vale Odds

Chelsea are the 1/16 favourites to win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 94%. Port Vale are 20/1 to win the tie, which shows the scale of the task at hand, while a draw which would force extra-time is 11/1.

Over 2.5 goals is 2/9, BTTS is 11/8 and Joao Pedro is the favourite to score first at 11/5.

Today's Football Fixtures

Chelsea -3 handicap @ 6/5

How much weight can we give to Port Vale’s cup spirit this season? It has been a remarkable run, and the contrast between their league and cup form has been astonishing. They are a rubbish League 1 team, and they look certain to finish bottom of the table, having amassed just 31 points from 38 games.

However, in the FA Cup, they have conceded just once en route to the last eight, winning by a 1-0 scoreline in the Second, Third, Fourth and Fifth Round. All their FA Cup matches have been at home which is a big advantage given the state of their pitch. 

I just can’t see Vale being able to cope with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and the hosts could run away with this tie fairly quickly. 

Ben Waine to score first @ 18/1

Why not? Waine has been the man of the moment in this year’s FA Cup, scoring three crucial goals in four 1-0 wins. His last two goals have come against Bristol City and Sunderland, and given they’ve come in one-goal wins, obviously they’ve been the first goals in those matches. 

Chelsea have about 25 potential goalscorers at a shorter price than Waine, but just imagine the scenes if Vale grab the first goal. The hosts have looked shaky at the back, with no clean sheets in their last eight and back-to-back 3-0 losses against Everton and PSG. Chelsea should progress in style, but a small stake on Waine to open the scoring is worth a punt at this price. 

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