Hull vs Millwall Prediction: Does a draw suit both sides?

Here we go then. The EFL Championship play-offs are here. 

On Friday night, the surprise package of the Championship season Hull City, host Millwall as sixth faces third (20:00 BST, Sky Sports Main Event). The Tigers will hope to gain a first-leg advantage at the MKM Stadium, and below you can find my Hull vs Millwall predictions, featuring betting tips and more.

Team News

Sergej Jakirovic will be delighted to have seen John Egan back in training this week, after he was taken off at half-time against Norwich City. Matt Crooks and Mohamed Belloumi are both also ready to play after coming off in that epic 2-1 win over the Canaries, so the manager has a clean bill of health from that final day fixture.

Cody Drameh, Amir Hadziahmetovic and Eliot Matazo are all long-term absentees, but Paddy McNair, Lewis Koumas and Kyle Joseph are all options to feature off the bench. An unchanged XI feels the most likely option for Jakirovic.

For Millwall, Alex Neil will hope Josh Coburn will be fit to feature after his hip issue, but it feels likely that Mihailo Ivanovic will lead the line in this first leg. With players rested against Oxford in the second half, Neil is unlikely to tinker too much, but he does have a big decision to make in midfield.

First-choice holder Billy Mitchell got half an hour off the bench after his comeback from injury and that might be enough for him to start in place of Barry Bannan with Derek Mazou-Sacko another option in midfield. Millwall have looked strongest when Mitchell has partnered Casper de Norre, so I’d expect that to be the case on Humberside. 

Football Odds

Hull vs Millwall Odds

Hull are priced at 2/1 to win this first leg, while Millwall are at 11/8 to secure a vital first-leg win. That gives the Lions an implied win probability of 48%, while a draw is 23/10, over 2.5 goals is 23/10 and BTTS is 5/6.

Ivanovic is the 11/2 favourite to open the scoring, while Joe Gelhardt is 23/10 to score anytime. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw @ 23/10

I think both teams would be relatively happy with a draw and the first legs of these play-offs tend to be tense affairs. Given the playing styles of both of these teams, I’m not sure either side will want to dominate possession, with Hull the most effective counter-attacking team in the league this term. 

Millwall have only conceded 49 goals in 46 matches and will go to the MKM looking to avoid defeat before heading back down south for what could be a raucous second leg. Hull beat Millwall 3-1 at the Den, so won’t write the tie off if it is level-pegging at full time. 

It’s quite a boring selection, but these two are unlikely to go hammer and tongs, and so a low-scoring draw feels like the most likely outcome. 

Oli McBurnie to score or assist @ 8/5

If there is a man for the big occasion, it is Hull City’s number nine. Oli McBurnie has been arguably the signing of the season in the Championship, scoring a remarkable 17 goals and bagging a further eight assists in just 37 league appearances. 

25 goal contributions is remarkable and he scored a brace to drag Hull into the top six on the final day. Hull’s penalty taker is also their focal point for all of their attacks, and even in what could be a tight affair, I’d back him to make an impact for the home side. 

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