Qarabag vs Ajax Prediction: Brazilian on target in Baku to down Dutch giants

After five rounds of fixtures, Fred Grim's Ajax remain the only one of the 36 clubs in the league phase of the 2025/26 Uefa Champions League without a point to their name, having suffered five defeats, shipping 16 goals and scoring just once. Next up for the Dutch giants is a long flight to Baku, Azerbaijan, where they take on Qarabag, who have picked up seven points so far, at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium on Wednesday (17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 9).

Below are my Qarabag vs Ajax predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev and Kady Borges (both unspecified) are still out injured for Qarabag.

Football Odds

As for Ajax, Steven Berghuis (groin), Kenneth Taylor (knock), Josip Sutalo, Gerald Alders, James McConnell and Wout Weghorst (all unspecified) will all miss out on Wednesday.

Qarabag vs Ajax Odds

Qarabag are unbeaten at home in the league phase, beating FC Copenhagen 2-0 and drawing 2-2 with Chelsea. Wednesday's hosts are 21/20 favourites to collect all three points in gameweek six, implying a 48.8% probability of success.

Ajax are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to get off the mark with a win - and the draw offered at 11/4.

To Win to Nil - Qarabag @ 3/1

After falling to four consecutive defeats, Ajax have started December with back-to-back wins against FC Groningen (2-0) and Fortuna Sittard (1-3). However, that's not enough to convince me that they can take anything back from their trip to Azerbaijan.

Granted, Ajax have been dealt a tough fixture list so far, with Inter Milan, Olympique Marseille, Chelsea, Galatasaray and Benfica their first five opponents, and on paper, Qarabag should be their easiest assignment to date.

Today's Football Fixtures

However, Qarabag have proven themselves to be no pushovers, winning their first two league-phase games away to Benfica (2-3) and at home to Copenhagen (2-0). They've not tasted success in any of their last three Champions League matches, but two of those were away from home against Athletic Club (3-1) and Napoli (2-0), and between those defeats, they held reigning Fifa Club World Cup champions Chelsea to a draw in Baku.

While qualification to the knockout phase is but a pipe dream now for Ajax, Qarabag stand a realistic chance of at least making the play-offs, so all the motivation will be with the hosts on Wednesday, and I think that will see them to all three points.

I'm also backing Qarabag to keep a clean sheet, as they have done in eight of their last nine home matches, including the last three.

Ajax, remember, have failed to score in four of their five Champions League games this season, only finding the net in a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea via a penalty kick from Weghorst, who is currently out injured.

Anytime Goalscorer - Leandro Andrade (QAR) @ 15/8

Qarabag forward Lenadro Andrade seems to have saved his best form for Europe this year.

In 12 Azerbaijan Premier League appearances this season, he has scored just once, but in 11 Champions League games, including qualifiers, he has struck six times, including three in five league-phase matches.

The Portuguese-born Cape Verde international started the comeback in Qarabag's victory over Benfica in Lisbon on matchday one and doubled his tally in defeat to Athletic Club (MD3) before grabbing his third of the campaign at home to Chelsea.

At 15/8, the 26-year-old is providing great value in the Anytime Goalscorer market.