PSV vs Liverpool Prediction: Hosts to overcome booking points handicap in Eindhoven

After winning their first seven league-phase games in the Uefa Champions League, Liverpool's spot in the last 16 is already secure, but Barcelona's last-gasp winner against Benfica last Tuesday means Arne Slot's side must avoid defeat against PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 3) to guarantee top spot.

Their hosts at the Philips Stadion, PSV, have plenty to play for themselves as they need a point to guarantee a top-24 finish and entry to the knockout phase play-offs. Read below for my PSV vs Liverpool prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Ivan Perisic is ineligible to play for PSV in European competition after only joining the Dutch giants in mid-September. The Croatian started Saturday's 3-2 Eredivisie win over NAC Breda so head coach Peter Bosz will be forced to make at least one change to his starting XI on Wednesday, and it seems Noa Lang, who missed out against Breda, will take his place on the wing if he has recovered from illness.

A second change is required as Ryan Flamingo who, like Perisic, completed the match on Saturday, is suspended following his red card in last Tuesday's 3-2 victory over Red Star Belgrade in Serbia. Flamingo scored PSV's third and final goal of that game but will sit out the visit of Liverpool, with Armando Obispo the standout candidate to replace him in the centre of defence.

Malik Tillman (ankle), Sergino Dest (knee) and Adamo Ngalo (shoulder) remain sidelined through injury.

Football Odds

Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones (both muscular injuries) are expected to be Liverpool's only absentees on Wednesday following the return to training of Curtis Jones on Tuesday, but Slot could decide to shake things up and hand opportunities to several fringe players with a ticket to the last 16 already printed.

Caoimhin Kelleher, Conor Bradley, Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endo, Tyler Morton, Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa will be among those hoping for rare starts, while Kostas Tsimikas and Darwin Nunez will expect to get the call from the off.

PSV vs Liverpool Odds

Bosz has a superior head-to-head record against his fellow countryman Slot, winning twice, drawing once and losing the other in the four games they have faced off as managers. It's Slot who has the upper hand in terms of talent at his disposal on Wednesday, though, evidenced by the 5/4 price on Liverpool to win, despite the Reds already sailing through to the last 16. PSV, meanwhile, are available to back for a victory at 2/1, implying a 33.3% chance of success.

The draw is 11/4, both teams to score at 4/9, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/2.

Booking Points Handicap (+5) - PSV -5 @ 5/6

PSV are the side playing for a greater prize on Wednesday so I would expect a more aggressive approach from the hosts up against more illustrious opponents who have players that can cause serious damage in the final third.

The Eredivisie outfit have committed four fewer fouls than Liverpool in the league phase but have received four more yellow cards than the Premier League leaders, with only six clubs cautioned more times in the competition. PSV are also one of 19 teams to have had a player sent off, while Liverpool are one of the 17 that haven't.

Bosz's side have received the most booking points in three of their seven league phase games while only against Bologna have Liverpool totalled more booking points than their opponents in this season's Champions League.

I don't think Liverpool will stand off their hosts completely on Wednesday nor pull out of any challenges but there isn't a great need for any of their players to go flying in unnecessarily in Eindhoven and risk an injury to either themselves or an opponent, so with the potential for PSV to waste time, should they be in a favourable position, I'm backing the -5 booking points handicap on the hosts.

Essentially, one yellow (worth 10 booking points with Betfred) for PSV, and none for Liverpool, would see this selection land. For further information on Betfred's booking points, see this handy guide.

Bet Builder - Darwin Nunez (LIV) 3+ Shots, Luuk de Jong (PSV) 2+ Shots, Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/4

Nunez was only introduced in the 68th minute of Liverpool's 4-1 Premier League victory over Ipswich Town on Saturday so I'm expecting the Uruguayan to be given the nod from the start on Wednesday, and that will really help to land the first leg of this Bet Builder.

He only managed one effort against Lille last time out in the Champions League but fired three shots in the first half of a 1-0 win at Girona on December 10, the third time he has tried his luck three times in a European game this season (also three v Bologna and RB Leipzig).

PSV conceded 21 shots to Red Star Belgrade in a 3-2 triumph in Serbia last week and have also let up double figures against Brest (11), Shakhtar Donetsk (12), Paris Saint-Germain (26), and Juventus (15), so they're not exactly watertight at the back.

Next, I'm backing PSV marksman Luuk de Jong to shoot at least twice on Wednesday, something he has achieved in six of his seven league phase appearances so far, only failing to do so against PSG (zero shots). He's averaging 2.3 shots in the competition and might fancy himself, particularly in the air, against the inexperienced Quansah.

Lastly, I'm tipping Liverpool to score no more than two goals in Eindhoven. PSV have only kept one clean sheet in the league phase but they've only conceded over 2.5 goals in one game, their competition opener against Juventus (3-1), while Liverpool have only netted more than twice on one occasion in Europe this season, hitting four past Bayer Leverkusen at Anfield in a 4-0 win.

Offers

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You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

Wednesday's Champions League Predictions:

The team here at Betfred Insights have you fully-covered for the final round of Champions League matches this Wednesday. You can check out all of our previews for the matches below:

Aston Villa vs Celtic Prediction: Hosts to win but no clean sheet
Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction: Expect goals, goals, goals in the Catalan capital
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prague Prediction: Wirtz can secure qualification
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction: Kim to cash in for Kompany’s corner kings
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Hosts may have to dig in against the Miners
Brest vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mbappe can score for sixth straight match at Brest
Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan Prediction: Rossoneri to get the job done
Girona vs Arsenal Prediction: Gunners to keep another clean sheet
Inter Milan vs Monaco Prediction: Hosts to secure knockout place
Juventus vs Benfica Prediction: Two anytime scorer bets worth backing
Lille vs Feyenoord Prediction: Canadian to catch visitors cold in France
Manchester City vs Club Brugge: Citizens to dig deep for the result they need
Red Bull Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Alvarez to come up with another goal
Sporting CP vs Bologna Prediction: Italians can halt Sporting’s Play-off progress
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Sesko can score in dead rubber
Stuttgart vs PSG Prediction: Barcola to rise to occasion again
Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade Prediction: Red Star can sign off with a win