Brest vs Auxerre Prediction: Valentine’s Day delight for Brest lovers

Brest's quest to reach the last 16 of the Uefa Champions League was dealt a hammer blow on Tuesday as they lost to 3-0 at home to fellow French side Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their knockout phase play-off tie. The return fixture takes place at the Parc des Princes next Wednesday, but before then, Eric Roy's charges must turn their attention to matters in Ligue 1, as they host a struggling Auxerre outfit at the Stade Francis-Le Ble on Friday (19:45).

Below are my Brest vs Auxerre predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jordan Amavi (hamstring), Bradley Locko (Achilles), Jonas Martin (muscle) and Romain Del Castillo (knee) missed Brest's defeat to PSG in midweek and all four are ruled out of Friday's fixture.

Mama Balde, Kamory Doumbia, Edimilson Fernandes, Mathias Pereira Lage and Ibrahim Salah all came off the bench on Tuesday and will be pushing for starts against Auxerre.

Football Odds

Nathan Buayi-Kiala and Lasso Coulibaly (both ACL) are out injured for Auxerre, while Eros Maddy (knock) and Theo Blair (lower leg) are doubts.

Paul Joly, meanwhile, is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Brest vs Auxerre Odds

Bresta are 11/10 to make it four wins from their last five games at home, implying a 47.6% probability, while Auxerre are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to triumph for just the second time on their travels this term.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Brest forward Ludovic Ajorque heads the anytime goalscorer market at 15/8 with Hamed Traore (9/4) first up for the visitors.

Match Result - Brest @ 11/10

A wounded Brest will arrive into Friday's contest with a point to provide after Tuesday's humbling to PSG. Barring a miraculous recovery in the French capital, Les Pirates' Champions League run will end next Wednesday, meaning they can, at least, focus on their Ligue 1 ambitions.

That spells bad news for Auxerre, who might have hoped for their next opponents to still be in the tie, leading them to name a weakened starting XI on Friday. That could still be the case, of course, with Roy's side given just two days off before being pushed back into league action, but he may now look to go again this week and use the return leg in Paris to rest his stars.

Brest have been in great form domestically over the last seven games, winning five of their league and cup ties, including their last two against Brest - 2-0 in Ligue 1 - and Troyese - 2-1 in the Coupe de France. They've won six of their last nine matches in Ligue 1 and six of their 10 home contests in the competition this season.

Auxerre, meanwhile, threw away the lead twice to draw 2-2 at home to Toulouse last weekend and are now winless in their last nine league games, losing their last four on their travels, and a 3-1 victory at Marseille on November 8 remains their sole triumph away from home this season.

AJA have lost eight of their 10 away outings in Ligue 1 since securing promotion from the second division last May, and only St. Etienne (two) and Montpellier (three) have picked up fewer away points than Christophe Pelissier's side.

Brest may have lost three of their last five games across all competitions, but those defeats came to PSG (x2) and Real Madrid, and the last French club they lost to other than the reigning league champions was Angers on January 5 (2-0), which was an away match.

I'm expecting Brest to recover from Tuesday's disappointment and show why they are seven points clear of Auxerre in the table.

Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ 10/11

Auxerre (joint-second) and Brest (joint-fifth) both feature highly in the Ligue 1 over 2.5 goals standings with 67 per cent (14) and 62 per cent (13) of their 21 games in the French top flight, respectively, finishing with at least three strikes.

Four of Brest's first six home matches in Ligue 1 this season saw under 2.5 total goals land but their last four at the Stade Francis-Le Ble have produced a minimum of three goals with 18 struck across that period, an average of 4.5 goals per game.

Furthermore, four of Brest's last five contests across all competitions have finished with at least three goals.

Auxerre, meanwhile, shared four goals with Toulouse in a 2-2 draw last weekend and that result followed six goals at Monaco eight days prior when they lost 4-2 in the principality.

AJA's away trips usually produce goals with 70 per cent (seven) of their 10 travel matches seeing the over 2.5 goals line land, and in the reverse fixture at the Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps on September 27, there were exactly three strikes - all for the hosts.

Offers

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