Birmingham vs Newcastle Prediction: Blues to relish this test

Birmingham City are a club that are on the rise. They're four points clear at the summit in League 1 and their ambitious owners will be relishing Saturday's FA Cup fourth-round clash with Newcastle United at St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. They have plans to take the Blues back to the Premier League so fixtures like this take place regularly, and this test will be their biggest of the campaign.

The Magpies head to the West Midlands following their Carabao Cup semi-final triumph over Arsenal on Wednesday, so they will be brimming with confidence ahead of their second cup tie of the week. Read on for my Birmingham vs Newcastle prediction, alongside the latest team news and match odds.

Birmingham vs Newcastle Odds

Birmingham are 6/1 (which has an implied probability of 14.3%) to win this match inside 90 minutes, which seems very generous because they have lost just once in all competitions at home this term. They have won three on the spin at St Andrew's heading into this fixture.

The draw is a tempting selection at 18/5 (21.7%) as this will be as much a test for Newcastle as it is for the hosts, and there have been four stalemates in 17 matches played inside this stadium in 2024/25.

Newcastle are 4/9 to triumph in regulation time, but better value would be found in backing them with both teams to score at 7/4. BTTS has been a successful bet in three of the Magpies' previous four contests in all competitions heading into the weekend.

Football Odds

Team News

Birmingham are without Lee Buchanan (knee) for this game, with the full-back ruled out for the rest of the campaign. Willum Willumsson and Paik Seung-ho (both unspecified) have been out of action for several matches and it remains to be seen if either are close to a return to action.

The same goes for Emil Hansson, who is struggling with an issue of his own. Blues boss Chris Davies made eight changes in midweek as his side edged out Stevenage to progress to the Vertu Trophy semi-finals, so a strong XI is expected to face Newcastle.

The likes of Jay Stansfield, Lyndon Dykes, Ryan Allsop, Tomoki Iwata, Keshi Anderson, Taylor Gardner-Hickman, Ben Davies and Ethan Laird are expected to be named in the starting lineup on Saturday, as Birmingham will want to measure themselves against top-flight opposition.

Newcastle will travel to the West Midlands without Jamaal Lascelles (ACL) and Harvey Barnes (muscle) due to injury. Joelinton missed out against Arsenal on Wednesday with a knee issue, and the midfielder is a doubt for this clash.

Callum Wilson has returned to the squad from his latest setback, and Eddie Howe could give him some valuable minutes at St Andrew's, potentially ahead of star man Alexander Isak. Anthony Gordon, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali are other key players who could start on the bench, while the likes of Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff, Lewis Miley and Matt Targett will be desperate to play.

Birmingham or draw @ 13/8

As a Birmingham fan, I've tried to watch Newcastle as much as possible since this draw was made and I have gone back and forth in my mind of what I believe our chances of winning are. Recent defeats to AFC Bournemouth and Fulham showed the Magpies have defensive vulnerabilities, but they then rallied with a strong pressing performance against Arsenal in midweek.

That being said, Birmingham have lost just one home game in all competitions this term, and that came against Fulham in the second round of the Carabao Cup. Of course, Newcastle are a much tougher opponent than the Cottagers, but Blues are now months into the season and Fulham faced them very early on in August.

Since that defeat, Birmingham have gone 15 games unbeaten in B9 and as a footballing side, have continued to grow. In that time, the hosts have conceded just nine goals, so they are averaging 0.6 per game, highlighting just how well the defence have been performing this campaign.

The back line will face its toughest test to date in Newcastle, and they will be relishing this opportunity to challenge themselves against a strong Premier League outfit.

The home factor isn't just about the form but the supporters as well. Another sell-out is expected on Saturday and St Andrew's can be a truly intimidating place when it's rocking, something Sir Alex Ferguson once said when talking about taking his Manchester United team here.

All of this combined has me believing Blues could pull off a shock, or at the very least force Newcastle to extra time.

Both teams to score @ 8/11

Birmingham's strong defence will do all they can to shutout the Magpies but I think that Premier League quality will shine through, especially if the likes of Isak and Gordon are involved.

BTTS has been a winning selection in each of Newcastle's last three outings in the top flight, as well as their previous two fixtures away from home.

There have been two occasions this season (from 17 games) in which Birmingham have failed to score at St Andrew's, while there have been goals at both ends in two of their last three appearances here.

This clash between a League 1 club hoping to reach the heights of the Premier League against a team flying high in that division feels like it will provide plenty of entertainment, which is likely why it was picked for TV coverage, and as such I think there will be goals on offer to both sides.

Offers

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