Aston Villa vs Cardiff Prediction: Rashford and Malen to get off the mark in claret and blue

With Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea all making early exits from the FA Cup, Aston Villa will surely be one of several Premier League clubs believing this could be 'their year' in the competition. Next up for the Villans is a Friday night (20:00, ITV1) fifth-round tie against EFL Championship strugglers Cardiff City, who won away at fellow second-tier sides Sheffield United and Stoke City to reach this stage.

Below are my Aston Villa vs Cardiff predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Unai Emery made four changes to Aston Villa's starting XI against Crystal Palace on Tuesday night. Axel Disasi, Lucas Digne, Andres Garcia and Lamare Bogarde all returned at the expense of Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Matty Cash and Marco Asensio, who all began last Saturday's 2-1 win over Chelsea.

Cash left out of the matchday 20 so it remains to be seen whether he is involved in any capacity against Cardiff.

Donyell Malen was left on the bench for the entirety of his side's defeat at Selhurst Park in midweek so he appears a certainty to start against Cardiff, likely flanked in attack by Marcus Rashford and Leon Bailey, both of whom were second-half substitutes against the Eagles. Marco Asensio could also begin the game after playing the last 25 minutes or so in south London.

Maatsen and Robin Olsen, who came on at half-time on Tuesday for the stricken Emiliano Martinez, are also in line for rare starts.

Ross Barkley (knee), Pau Torres (broken metatarsal), Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana (both hamstring) are all in the Villa treatment room.

Football Odds

Cardiff face a tough test in the Championship next Tuesday as automatic promotion chasers Burnley visit the Cardiff City Stadium. It wouldn't, therefore, be a surprise to see Omer Riza name an under-strength side at Villa Park.

That was the case in the fourth round at the bet365 Stadium where the Bluebirds beat Stoke on penalties after a 3-3 draw in regulation time. Back-up goalkeeper Ethan Horvath, 18-year-old defender Luey Giles and Danish forward Yousef Salech were among those to make rare starts, although the latter has earned himself a promotion to the league starting XI in the last couple of matches.

Jak Alnwick (hamstring) was recently ruled out for the rest of the season, while Jesper Daland, Ollie Tanner, Joe Ralls and Will Alves are all sidelined with injuries.

Former Villan Anwar El Ghazi will hope to make an appearance for Cardiff on his return to Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs Cardiff Odds

Aston Villa are heavy favourites to win this game in regulation time with odds of 1/5 implying an 83.3% probability, while Cardiff are 14/1, or a 6.7% chance, to shock the Premier League outfit.

The draw, which would send the tie to a penalty shootout, is priced at 6/1, with the Bluebirds 7/1 to win the tie by any means.

Villa's star striker Ollie Watkins, who may be rested on Friday, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 4/5, followed by Malen (6/5), Rashford (5/4) and Morgan Rogers (11/8), with ex-Villans Callum Robinson and El-Ghazi 4/1 and 6/1 respectively.

Booking Points Over/Under +27.5 - Under 27.5 @ 11/8

Villa are so highly fancied on Friday that there is very little value to be had in backing the Villans in any result-based markets, and I don't fancy the visitors to cause an upset.

Where we can pluck some value, however, is by backing under 27.5 booking points.

This selection was a winner in each team's third-round successes; Villa and West Ham picked up a yellow each (20 booking points combined) as the former won 2-1 at Villa Park on January 10, and a day earlier, there were no cards in Cardiff's 1-0 win at Sheffield United.

It took until the 88th minute for a card to be produced in the Bluebirds' triumph at Stoke in the following round on February 8 with two more following in the seventh and eighth minutes of stoppage time, and in Villa's 2-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur the following day, the Lilywhites were responsible for all three yellows.

I'm predicting a dominant performance from Villa on Friday and that should mean flashpoints are kept to a minimum with little needle in the game.

With Betfred, a yellow amounts to 10 booking points, meaning we can afford two cautions on Friday and still win on this selection. At 11/8, it certainly appeals here.

Bet Builder - Marcus Rashford (AVL) & Donyell Malen (AVL) Anytime Goalscorers @ 5/1

Rashford was surprisingly left on the bench for the first 68 minutes of Villa's Tuesday night defeat at Selhurst Park with Jacob Ramsey instead preferred on the left and Rogers also supporting Watkins in attack.

The Manchester United loanee was an impactful substitute against Chelsea last weekend, setting up both of Asensio's goals against the Blues, but he is still searching for his first goal in claret and blue, much like fellow mid-season arrival Malen, who joined permanently from German giants Borussia Dortmund in January.

Both players have made their names as goalscoring forwards so Friday presents an ideal opportunity for Malen and Rashford to get off the mark at Villa Park.

Cardiff have shipped 55 goals in 34 Championship matches this season, an average of 1.6 per game; only Plymouth Argyle (68) and Portsmouth (56) have conceded more times in the second tier, and the Bluebirds were hit for seven by Leeds United (7-0) at Elland Road on February 1.

Villa will be looking to get a few goals under their belt on Friday and Rashford and Malen should be two players desperate to get on the scoresheet.

A 5/1 double on both to bag their maiden Villa goals looks good.

Offers

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