Saturday Football Tips: A 4.07/1 Saturday European Treble

Last year, the 3-3-3 column returned a profit of 17 points, which means that if you’d backed every treble recommended over the course of the season for level £10 stakes, you’d be up by £170. That’s one of the better returns you’ll see in the tipping business and speaking of returns, Jamie Pacheco is returning again this year to do try to do it all over again, and maybe even improve on it.   

Welcome to the 3-3-3 betting column. Why is it called that? Glad you asked.  It’s not a formation to play when you’ve had a man sent off but rather: 

3- The number of different selections making up the acca. 

3- The number of different (non-English) European Leagues the selections are taken from every week. 

3- The minimum odds (3/1) or 4.0 if you prefer, that the acca will come to it every week. 

And it really is as simple as that. The selections can be from any betting markets, as long as they meet the criteria set out above.  And to round things off, every week I’ll leave you with a cool (or at least I think so) bit of trivia involving one of the teams featured in the acca. Simples... 

2025-26 season Current P and L: +23.5 pts  

2024-25 season’s P and L: + 16.9     

We were incredibly unlucky last time out to not make it three winning weeks in a row. With the first two selections home and dry (albeit by the ‘barest of margins’) we had Porto 2-1 up going into injury time. A goal for either side would have downed our ‘Porto to win and under 3.5 goals’ selection bet and that’s precisely what happened.  

The fact that it was surprisingly Famalicao that got it made no difference, but what I have to say was a bit annoying was that it came in the very last (8th) minute of injury time.  

But that’s football, the other two selections only just won, as I’d already mentioned, and we rode our luck a bit in the two previous weeks, so no hard feelings.  Although, of course, three in a row would have been very nice indeed.  On we go.  

• Real Sociedad v Alaves  
• Saturday, April 11, 13:00  
• Back Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 

When Sociedad failed to have a BTTS match at home against Levante last week (it ended 2-0 to Sociedad), it ended a remarkable run of 10 home games that had seen goals at both ends.  

It means they’re now ‘only’ 80% for BTTS matches at home and face a side who are almost even-stevens for away matches, in Alaves. Yes, it’s 46%, but that’s not bad at all for the purposes of our bet, and the even better news is that their last two games on the road ended 3-4 and 3-2, so the goals have been flowing at both ends when Alaves are on the road.  

Three of the last six have had BTTS between these two sides, so I think we’ve got a pretty good chance here.  

• Torino v Verona  
• Saturday, April 11, 14:00  
• Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8 

One of the strategies that has paid off this season and helped secure our excellent P and L has been that of going with one selection at odds against, hoping it comes good and then going with two considerably shorter-priced ones while still meeting the column’s rules of the acca being at odds of at least 4.0.  

And this week the odds-against selection (at 11/8 no less) is over 2.5 goals in Torino v Verona.    

I’m very surprised about that price based on the stats staring at us in the face.  

Torino have a 60% strike rate at home for ‘overs’ games and though it’s true that it’s only two of the last five that have gone that way, at the back end of last year they had four in a row that went ‘overs’.  

Verona are 62.5% for ‘overs’ away from home, and a good trend for us is that four of their last five have had three or more, so their games have had plenty of goals on the road of late.   

Reassuringly, three of the last four games between them had over 2.5 goals, so I’m really surprised the price here isn’t about 8/11 rather than 11/8.   

• Estrela da Amadora v Sporting Lisbon          
• Saturday 11th April 20:30  
• Back over 1.5 goals @ 1/6  

I don’t think we need to dedicate too much time to explaining this time.  

Whereas Arsenal may be a bridge too far for Sporting in the Champions League, Sporting have certainly found it easy to score goals in the Portuguese league.  

That goes a long way to explaining why they have a 93% strike rate for over 1.5 goals games away from home. That includes all of their last 10 on the road.  

Estrela are no slouches themselves at home for games with two or more (78%) and may well score one themselves if the stats are anything to go by, so if we’re still alive going into this one, I’m pretty confident we’ll go on and win again.  

Jamie’s Fun Fact  

When Sporting Lisbon failed to score at home against Arsenal in midweek, it was the first time in 36 games they didn’t score at the Estádio de Alvalade in all competitions.