Wellington Phoenix vs Western United Prediction: The Nix to claw their way to victory on opening weekend

Wellington Phoenix enjoyed a brilliant 2023/24 Australian A-League Men's campaign, finishing second behind treble-winners Central Coast Mariners, but some high-profile departures in the off-season have hit the squad hard.

The New Zealanders kick off the new season by hosting Western United at the Sky Stadium on Sunday (04:00, TNT Sports 5), and you can build up to the action by checking out my Wellington Phoenix vs Western United prediction below.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix saw several key stars depart the club in the off-season, notably A-League Men’s Goalkeeper of the Year Alex Paulsen (AFC Bournemouth, now on loan at Auckland FC), 2022/23 star striker Oskar Zawada (Waalwijk), Benjamin Old (St. Etienne), Finn Surman (Portland Timbers) and Bozhidar Kraev (Western Sydney Wanderers), leaving head coach Giancarlo Italiano with a huge rebuilding task following their runners-up finish earlier this year.

Italiano has made several signings in a bid to reshape the squad, bringing in Stefan Colakovski (Perth Glory), Hideki Ishige (Gamba Osaka), Joshua Oluwayemi (Lahti), Paulo Retre (Goa) and Marco Rojas (Brisbane Roar), and he can still call upon captain Alex Rufer and last season's top scorer Kosta Barbarouses.

However, Rojas and Retre are both injured and unavailable for selection this weekend, while Colakovski hasn't been named in the squad either.

Lukas Kelly-Heald and Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues are also sidelined for Sunday’s season opener.

Football Odds

Joshua Risdon (Perth Glory), Lachlan Wales (Gyeongnam), Nikita Rukavytsya and Steven Lustica (both free agents) all left Western United after their 11th-place finish in the A-League Men's last season, while Daniel Penha, who struck seven times in 22 appearances, went back to Brazilian parent club CRB following his loan spell and has headed to Portuguese side Nacional for another temporary move.

Coming in the other direction have been Hiroshi Ibusuki (Adelaide United) and Russell Tate (Western Sydney Wanderers), who will provide plenty of A-League experience in attack and defence, respectively; in particular, Ibusuki's contributions, having scored 15 times in the division last season, could be crucial to a side that were the lowest scorers with 36 strikes in 2023/24 and have lost their seven-goal top scorer, Penha.

Western United head coach John Aloisi has two players - Ramy Najjarine and Khoder Kaddour - out injured for Sunday's trip to New Zealand.

Wellington Phoenix vs Western United Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Wellington Phoenix vs Western United page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Phoenix are 19/20 to kick off the new campaign with a victory, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 51.3%, while Western United are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to triumph for the first time in Wellington since November 2022.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

Barbarouses (11/8) leads the anytime goalscorer market followed Ibusuki (15/8) and David Ball (2/1).

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Wellington Phoenix Win & Under 3.5 @ 15/8

The Nix have won their last three games against Western United without conceding, beating the expansion side 3-0 in Launceston in February 2023 before winning 2-0 at home and 3-0 away last season.

Italiano's side boasted the best defence in the division in 2023/24 as they let in just 26 goals across 27 matches, one fewer than champions Central Coast Mariners. They weren't exactly prolific going the other way as eight teams scored more than their total of 42, but their solidity ensured they never needed to be high-scorers.

Only five of their league contests finished with four or more goals, so it seems sensible to back under 3.5 in their first game of this season, which could well be a cagey affair.

Just 33 goals were scored in 13 games at Sky Stadium last season, at least four fewer than any other venue, with the Nix conceding just 10 times and losing just once on home soil - a 3-0 defeat to Newcastle Jets last December.

The exits of several key players and injuries to a couple of new arrivals are sure to hit Italiano's side hard, which is why I'm not backing them to win to nil as they adjust to life without the likes of Paulsen, who guarded their goal so expertly in 2023/24.

However, I think there's enough grit and determination in this team to get the job done on weekend one, particularly against a Western United outfit that finished 27 points behind them last season.

Sunday's visitors have also seen some influential figures depart, though the signing of Ibusuki could prove to be a shrewd one.

The Japanese forward may get on the scoresheet this weekend, but I still see a 2-1 win for the Nix in that eventuality.

First Half Total Goals - Under 0.5 @ 9/4

Wellington Phoenix games aren't usually packed with goals, and therefore neither are their first halves with just 24 struck (15 for, nine against) across their 27 A-League Men's matches in 2023/24.

Western United, meanwhile, were the league's lowest first-half scorers last season with just 10 strikes before the interval, and they are likely to set up to be solid from the outset on Sunday.

That's unlikely to disturb the hosts, who will probably be happy to keep things ticking themselves to begin with, remaining patient safe in the knowledge that they have home advantage and can push for the win in the second half.

The opening A-League Men's fixture finished 0-0 between CCM and Melbourne Victory, and while I don't envisage another goalless draw here, there may be another first half without any strikes.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.