Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: Nix up to old tricks against basement boys

It's been a tough season so far for 2023/24 Australian A-League Men's runners-up Wellington Phoenix, who sit 10th in the 13-team standings heading into Thursday's game against Brisbane Roar (04:00, TNT Sports 1). However, Giancarlo Italiano's side are unbeaten in their last three games and will be confident of extending that run to four against league stragglers the Roar, who have won just once this term and are four points adrift at the bottom.

Below is my Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar prediction, supported by the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek meeting at Sky Stadium in New Zealand.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix were expected to be busy in the mid-season transfer window but have failed to make any additions, instead letting go of three senior players, Oskar van Hattum (Sligo Rovers), Mohamed Al-Taay (Western Sydney Wanderers) and David Ball (unattached).

Matters aren't helped by Stefan Colakovski's knee injury, which will rule him out for a seventh straight game, but Italiano is hopeful of having Tim Payne back for the midweek visit of the Roar.

Skipper Alex Rufer is also edging closer to a return after a five-match illness absence.

Football Odds

Scott Neville waved goodbye to Brisbane Roar and professional football last Friday, making his 300th and final career appearance as a late substitute in a 1-0 loss to Western Sydney Wanderers.

Young Socceroos forward, Nathan Amanatidis, failed to make the matchday squad last time out after his recent arrival from Sydney FC, so he will be hoping for a call-up in midweek.

Ben Warland, however, remains sidelined with a knee injury.

Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Odds

Wellington Phoenix are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to pick up all three points on Thursday, although they've won just twice at Sky Stadium this season and not since December 28, losing their first home game of the calendar year to Adelaide United (1-2) before playing out goalless draws in the capital with Sydney FC and Central Coast Mariners.

Brisbane Roar, meanwhile, are 15/8 to claim back-to-back away victories having beaten Sydney FC 4-3 on January 18, giving the visitors an implied win probability of 34.8%.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

The ALM's latest 100-goal member, Wellington's Kosta Barbarouses, is 13/10 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammate Marco Rojas and Brisbane forward Rafael Struick (both 12/5).

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Wellington Phoenix & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/5

Brisbane won a game at the 13th attempt last month, beating big-spenders Sydney FC 4-3 at Allianz Stadium, and go in search of successive away wins this week. However, they failed to follow up that victory in the Emerald City with another against Western Sydney Wanderers last Friday, losing 1-0 at home to Alen Stajcic's side, their 11th defeat of the season.

That win in Sydney, then, very much feels like an outlier, and their next game pits them against an opponent they haven't beaten since March 2022, losing four of their last six head-to-heads with Wellington.

The Nix beat the Roar twice at Sky Stadium in 2023/24, beating them 5-2 and 1-0 either side of a 1-1 draw in Brisbane, and haven't lost at home to Ruben Zadkovich's side since January 2017.

Italiano's charges have failed to live up to last season's exploits, especially in Wellington where they picked up 32 points in the prior campaign - at least three more than any other side managed on home soil.

While they have struggled for large parts of the season and are yet to taste success in the capital since the turn of the year, they've by no means disgraced themselves at home, only conceding the winner to Adelaide in the 75th minute and holding Sydney FC and the Mariners to draws without conceding.

The Roar at Sky Stadium should, in theory, present their easiest assignment of the season, and while nothing is won on paper, you would think Thursday's hosts will be bang up for this game with a victory easily achievable if everyone does their job correctly.

A home win is an easy pick for me here, but to boost the odds, I'm adding in under 3.5 total goals, as all five of Wellington's victories this season have seen under 3.5 goals and 93 per cent (13) of their 14 games have finished with three or fewer strikes, a 4-1 defeat to the Wanderers on December 22 proving to be the exception to the rule.

Brisbane, meanwhile, have seen half (seven) of their ALM outings end with under 3.5 goals, including seven of their 11 losses.

To Win to Nil - Wellington Phoenix @ 16/5

Going a step further, I'm backing the Nix to complete the mission on Thursday without their net being troubled.

Italiano's side conceded just 26 times in the regular 2023/24 ALM season, boasting the best defence in the division, and despite their troubles this term, only Auckland (12) and Melbourne City (14) have seen fewer strikes in their own goal than Wellington (17).

The Nix have kept five clean sheets, behind only Auckland (eight), Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory (both six), and since replacing Josh Oluwayemi in between the sticks, Alby Kelly-Heald has conceded just once, recording two shutouts in three appearances - both at Sky Stadium.

Wellington's first three wins this season were achieved without conceding a goal as they beat Perth Glory (0-2), Central Coast Mariners (0-3) and Melbourne Victory (1-0), and the capital club will be confident of adding to their clean sheet tally on Thursday against a struggling Roar side that has blanked seven times in 2024/25, and in five of their last seven games.

Brisbane's cause hasn't been helped by the mid-season sale of Thomas Waddingham to Portsmouth, with the 19-year-old accounting for 25 per cent (four) of their 16 league goals, and we could well see a repeat of the last meeting between these two sides last March which saw Bozhidar Kraev, now at the Wanderers, score the only goal of the game in the second minute at Sky Stadium.

Offers

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