Sporting vs Benfica Prediction: Derby de Lisboa to end All Square

Sporting  

Sporting can be extremely proud of their work so far this season.  

For starters, there was that excellent run in the Champions League where finishing Top 8 in the Group Stage got them to a Last 16 tie against Bodo Glimt, where they overcame a 3-0 first-leg deficit to win 5-3 on aggregate.  

And there was no disgrace in going out just 1-0 to Arsenal after they'd gone into the tie as huge underdogs. There's a huge gulf in budget and the quality of the two squads, at least on paper, and though Arsenal were just about the better team over two legs, there wasn't much in it.  

They also made the semis of the League Cup, and they'll be red-hot favourites in the Portuguese Cup in a few weeks' time when they play Fafe, after knocking out Porto in the semis.  

As for the league, they're second with 71 points, chasing Porto on 76 and crucially, have a game in hand. So win this, and they should go extremely close, but don't win it, and Porto will feel they have one hand on the trophy.  

There may be some tired legs after that trip to north London, but they should field very close to a full team.  

Keep an eye on all-action skipper and midfielder M Hjulmand and attacking left-back Maxi Araujo, a sort of Marc Cucurella in terms of style and aggression. One or both of them may well be in the Premier League next season.   

Benfica 

It's been something of a strange season for Benfica.  

The highlight was that last-gasp winner from keeper Anatolii Trubin to beat Real Madrid 4-2 to make the CL Playoffs, the lowlight has been that as soon as they went on a good run in the league, it ended when you least expected it. A case in point being the recent 1-1 draw with Casa Pia just when they were starting to challenge the Top 2 late in the day.  

Still, it's probably been a 6.5/10 season for José Mourinho, and a win here would certainly put Sporting under pressure for that Top 2, although it's probably a bridge too far to be challenging Porto at this stage.  

It will be interesting to see who the inevitable big offers come in for at the end of the season and who they're prepared to let go. Trubin may be one, Norwegian winger, Andreas Schjelderup another, and all-action Luxembourg international Leandro Barreiro yet another.  

All three should start here.  

Match Winner/Correct Score   

Sporting are 21/20, the draw is 5/2, and Benfica are 11/5. All spot-on prices if we're honest.  

The last four at Sporting between these two ended 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, which is very much in line with those odds, though, of course, head-to-heads aren't the be-all-and-end-all.  

The interesting here thing here is that a draw doesn't really help either side. It would make life hard for Sporting to catch Porto and hard for Benfica to catch Sporting. 

But perversely, it's probably the most likely outcome in my view, though of course the odds say the home win has the greater chance.  

One thing is for sure: Mourinho (in particular) won't want to lose it, even if just for pride reasons, while it's not really the Portuguese football way to go for broke in the last few minutes, whatever the occasion. 

I can't see this being 0-0, and 1-1 is always a lively runner in matches between the Big 3, so that's worth a small interest at 6/1.  

To Score Anytime  

We've mentioned Colombia striker Luis Suarez many a time in my 3-3-3 column and Sporting previews when he's in action in both the Portuguese Superliga and in the Champions League. 34 goals this season (including four for Colombia) in 44 games are elite numbers, but then at odds of 6/5, 'they' aren't giving much away.  And he's looked a little jaded these last few weeks after playing so much.  

Instead, it may be worth a dabble on Pedro 'Pote' Goncalves. 14 goals in 28 games (he was injured for a few games) are excellent numbers for a winger, and he's been in fine form of late, with four in his last seven.  

If we're going to manipulate the data a bit just for a second and exclude those two games against Arsenal, where no one for Sporting scored against a strong defense, that's four in five. Well, sort of. Either way, he's also worth an interest at the considerably higher price of 2/1.