Saturday BTTS Tips: 10/1 Acca for the 3PM Coupon

Last week we were 80% of the way towards our fourth double-digit winner of the season but then Stevenage and Fleetwood Town conspired to take us out with a very poor quality game. Just four shots on target were recorded in a 0-0 draw. The other four games were all winners.

Once again, we go five matches deep with a price pretty much on the nose of 10/1 for our Saturday BTTS Tips for March 16...

Leg 1 - Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest @ 8/15

I know it wasn’t broadcast live over here but anyone who saw the highlights of Luton’s 3-4 defeat at Bournemouth on Wednesday night will not be remotely shocked that their match is a strong BTTS play this weekend.

The Hatters went out to a 0-3 lead at the interval, with Ross Barkley running the show and further enhancing speculation that he could be in-line for the shock of all shock recalls to the England squad. Then the second half happened and Bournemouth players just run past Luton’s midfield and defence without a care in the world.

It was quite clear that Rob Edwards’ side ran out of steam and when you are playing against any side with some speed, that is going to be a problem. Nottingham Forest have those types of players and this has all the makings of a high-scorer, which is not normal for a relegation six-pointer.

Leg 2 - Ipswich Town vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 4/5

Whenever you check out Ipswich Town’s results at Portman Road, it seemingly is just the same story, told slightly differently each time. The home side will come back to win it late despite conceding and being behind at some point.

83% of their games in Suffolk have resulted in BTTS being a winner and despite this, this leg is actually the longest shot of the bunch. Sheffield Wednesday aren’t that bad, are they?

The statistics though do suggest this isn’t as obvious of a banker as you might expect. The Owls are the worst team for this bet in the division at a paltry 35% but when you strip it down to just matches on their travels, it is even worse, just 22%. Yikes. They haven’t recorded a BTTS winner away from home since a 3-1 defeat at Carrow Road back in mid-December, that is seven-straight matches of this bet falling flat on its face.

Yet, this is Portman Road, the place where BTTS - No bettors go to cry. Give me both teams scoring and I wouldn’t be shocked if they both score more than one either.

Leg 3 - Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Rovers @ 8/13

Blackburn have become the score-draw specialists of the EFL Championship under new boss John Eustace.

Since he’s taken charge, five of their seven matches would have been the full three points on the old Football Pools coupon. BTTS in turn has been a winner in six of those seven games, with only the 0-0 draw at Cardiff stopping a 100% record.

It is rare that a team is so good for BTTS but bang-average when it comes to Over 2.5 but that is what three 1-1 draws in their past four games in all competitions will do for you.

The season-long stats say this one is a toss-up selection but as our colleague Frank Monkhouse noted in his Goals Galore Tips column this week about this game, ‘Interestingly, 2-1 was the final score in each of the last three meetings, and another would suit us just fine.’

Yes Frank, yes it would. I’m with him and I think both sets of supporters have something to cheer about on Saturday afternoon up at the Riverside.

Leg 4 - Dorking Wanderers vs Solihull Moors @ 8/15

Sometimes we just roll with statistics and when you read that Solihull Moors have been involved in 11-straight matches on the road where BTTS has been a winner, that alone is enough to get me to put the game at the forefront of my mind.

Throw in the fact that Dorking Wanderers are relatively decent in front of goal - when you consider their league position - coupled with their porous defence and this is a BTTS play all the way.

The home side have recorded winners for this bet in their past four games down in Surrey and the last time Solihull Moors didn’t come good for this one on their travels in league play was October 23, when they took a 5-0 shellacking down at Roots Hall.

I like the away side to win the game but both sides should find the back of the net.

Leg 5 - Montrose vs Annan Athletic @ 8/13

Another stats based play as Annan Athletic have recorded BTTS in their previous ten matches away from the Galabank Stadium.

This might be a tough game but they did draw just last week at top-of-the-table Falkirk 1-1. I will throw in the caveat that their equaliser was deep into added time but they all count.

The last time they went on the road and didn’t score was all the way back in September, when they took a 5-0 walloping at the hands of Hamilton.

These two have already faced one another three times this season and on all three occasions, BTTS has been a winner. So I like the chances of them making it four from four on Saturday afternoon and rounding off our fivefold nicely.

When we convert the odds into a percentage chance, it comes out at 9%. That means the traders think these five matches would produce BTTS once in every 11 times this set of games got played under the current circumstances. That feels low to me.

You can check out all of our Football Accumulator Tips on our Acca hub page...