Palmeiras vs Vitoria Prediction: Verdao to get title bid back on track

Back-to-back defeats away to Mirassol (2-1) and Santos (1-0) have seen Palmeiras drop three points behind leaders Flamengo in the race for the 2025 Serie A title. Luckily for Verdao, they return home on Wednesday (22:30 GMT), with relegation-threatened Vitoria providing the opposition at Allianz Parque.

Below are my Palmeiras vs Vitoria predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this top-flight fixture from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

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Team News

Vitor Roque (Brazil), Gustavo Gomez, Ramon Sosa (both Paraguay), Facundo Torres, Emiliano Martinez and Joaquin Piquerez (all Uruguay) have all been on international duty recently and are unlikely to return in time for Palmeiras.

Figueiredo (cruciate ligament), Lucas Evangelista (hamstring), Paulinho (leg) and Weverton (finger) are still out injured for Verdao, too.

Football Odds

Vitoria's treatment room is currently housing Raul Caceres (thigh), Claudinho, Ruben Ramos, Lucas Arcanjo (all knee), Fintelman (hip), Jemerson (ankle) and Fabricio (hamstring).

However, the visitors are boosted by the returns of Camutanga, Dudu and Gabriel Baralhas, who were all suspended for their goalless draw with Botafogo on November 9.

Palmeiras vs Vitoria Odds

August's reverse fixture in Salvador finished 2-2, with Palmeiras coming from two goals down to claim a point at Barradao. Another draw between the two teams is priced at 4/1, with a repeat of that scoreline available at 22/1.

Wednesday's hosts are 2/7 to return to winning ways, implying a 77.8% probability of success, while Vitoria are 9/1, or a 10% chance, to triumph on their league travels for just the second time this season.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Palmeiras & Under 2.5 @ 2/1

Only Flamengo (69) have scored more goals in Serie A this season than Palmeiras (58), but Verdao have only found the net once across their last two games and have blanked in two of their last five.

Four of Palmeiras' last five league games have finished with two or fewer goals, with a couple of those, away to Juventude and at home to Santos, seeing Abel Ferreira's side win 2-0.

Today's Football Fixtures

Vitoria, meanwhile, have scored just 29 goals in 33 Serie A matches this year - only stragglers Sport Recife (25) have found the net fewer times.

Away from home, Leao da Barra have only notched 11 times, and, you guessed it, only Sport Recife (nine) have struck fewer goals on their travels.

Vitoria have scored in their last four away games, but Palmeiras have kept clean sheets in their last three at home (two in Serie A, one in the Copa Libertadores), and only Flamengo (eight) and Fluminense (10) have conceded fewer goals at home.

With so many players still sidelined, and after back-to-back defeats, I think this may be a game where Palmeiras go in front and look to hold on to their lead. Confidence is unlikely to be high, and there is a lack of fluency in their play, but securing the win is vital to their title chances.

Vitoria are unlikely to roll over as they are just a point behind Santos, who are currently occupying the final survival slot, and like Palmeiras, four of their last five games have gone under 2.5 goals; in fact, three have ended with just a single goal, while last time out, they drew 0-0.

So, a low-scoring contest looks likely, but at home, with a superior side and the title in their sights, Palmeiras should have just about enough to claim all three points in Sao Paulo.

Bet Builder - Over 2.5 Vitoria Corners & Aitor Cantalapiedra (VIT) 2+ Total Shots @ 12/5

I successfully tipped over 2.5 Sport Recife corners and Leo Pereira to take at least two shots in a 12/5 Bet Builder for yesterday's Botafogo-Sport Recife preview, so I'm going for something similar in this one.

Again, I am backing the away side to take at least three corners. Vitoria are averaging 4.48 corners taken per game in this season's Serie A, recording 3+ in their last seven matches, including their last three away from home.

On their travels, Vitoria are averaging 3.75 corners taken per game.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, are averaging 3.83 corners conceded per game. At home, they're averaging just 2.76 conceded per game, but they've seen their last three league opponents at Allianz Parque take at least three corners, allowing 16 across matches against Santos (five), Cruzeiro (eight) and Red Bull Bragantino (three).

In August's reverse fixture in Salvador, Vitoria earned six corners to Palmeiras' two, and in last year's corresponding game, won 2-0 by Vitoria in July 2024, the visitors fell just short of the required total, taking both of their corners in the first half.

I'm also adding in a couple of shots for Vitoria winger Aitor Cantalapiedra, who is averaging 1.3 shots per game in Serie A.

The 29-year-old has recorded 2+ shots in five of his 13 league starts, and if Palmeiras are pushing for a goal, space may open up for him on the left wing.

Santos' left winger, Guilherme, took two shots in his side's 1-0 victory over Palmeiras last Sunday, and a week earlier, Mirassol's Alesson, playing in the same position, tried his luck four times.

I backed Sport Recife's Leo Pereira to take at least two shots against Botafogo on Tuesday, and that proved to be conservative, as the 25-year-old ended up recording seven efforts, scoring with his third.

Cantalapiedra may struggle to replicate those efforts, but I think two are within his reach.