Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Spanish capital to be painted white

The final fixture in La Liga before the international break is the Madrid derby on Sunday (20:00, live on Premier Sports 1) as Real host Atletico at the Bernabeu.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon provides his Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Atlético Madrid are no longer in contention for the title, but they could deliver a hammer blow to their rivals’ prospects of being crowned champions of Spain. Real Madrid have ground to make up on Barcelona and cannot afford to slip up.

A 5-2 victory for Diego Simeone’s team in the reverse fixture served up one of the most one-sided Madrid derby scorelines in recent years. The last few clashes have tended to produce goals, but they’re usually relatively even affairs. Since the start of 2024, five of the nine meetings have finished level after 90 minutes.

Both sides head into the game following midweek trips to England in the Champions League. Aided by an early red card for Bernardo Silva, Real Madrid won 2-1 at Manchester City to seal a convincing 5-1 aggregate victory. Atlético also advanced, despite losing the second leg of their round-of-16 tie 3-2 against Tottenham.

From a home perspective, it has been an excellent fortnight overall. Following back-to-back league defeats against Osasuna and Getafe in the middle of a crippling injury crisis, there were genuine fears that Real Madrid’s season might completely unravel in the final two weeks before the international break. Those fears were growing as they headed into stoppage time only drawing 1-1 at Celta Vigo a fortnight ago.

Los Blancos would have fallen six points behind Barcelona had they drawn that game, but Fede Valverde stepped up with a 95th-minute winner, which benefitted from a slice of good luck thanks to a deflection. There was nothing fortunate about the Uruguayan’s inspired hat-trick a few days later, as Real took control of their Champions League tie.

With a 4-1 victory over Elche sandwiched in between their two games against City, Álvaro Arbeloa’s reign, which was widely expected to end in the summer, now has a platform from which to build. For the first time this season, there is a genuine sense of momentum building at the Bernabéu.

As for Atlético Madrid, their campaign is now almost entirely about the cup competitions, although they’re never lacking in motivation when it comes to this fixture.

Simeone’s side will take on Barcelona in the quarter-finals of the Champions League in April. They also have a Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad to look forward to next month, but there is very little to play for in La Liga. Atleti are all but guaranteed a top-four finish, but in no position to catch the top two.

That has led to some extensive rotation in their recent league games. Despite that, Los Rojiblancos have reeled off four straight victories in the Spanish top flight. They saw off Getafe 1-0 at home last weekend, with an absolute rocket from Nahuel Molina the difference between the teams.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Real Madrid start as the 9/10 favourites to win the derby, while you can back the Draw at 11/4. Atlético are on offer at 5/2 to end a decade-long wait for a victory at the home of their fiercest rivals.

You can back Real Madrid to win and Both teams to score at 21/10. The hosts are given an 8/11 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals in the game, while they’re priced at 7/5 to net in both halves.

The visitors are on offer at 23/20 to win either half. They’re priced at 13/5 to win the second half, while you can back Simeone’s men to score over 1.5 goals in the game at 13/8.

Mbappé’s return means there’s a clear favourite when it comes to the Goalscorer markets. The Frenchman has netted 23 times in 23 appearances in La Liga this term. He’s on offer at 12/5 to score first, and 4/6 to score anytime on Sunday night.

You can also back Valverde to continue his hot scoring streak by registering another goal at odds of 16/5. Meanwhile, Sørloth is priced at 7/5 as an anytime goalscorer bet for the away team. Alvarez is on offer at 15/8 in the same market.

Team News

The one piece of bad news for Real Madrid over the past week is that of an injury for Thibaut Courtois. The Belgian is now set for at least a month on the sidelines, which will serve up an opportunity for Andriy Lunin, who has generally performed well for Los Blancos when called upon.

Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Dani Ceballos are also sidelined, while Éder Militão is not expected to feature, despite now being close to fitness. Jude Bellingham is available again, and could make the bench, while Kylian Mbappé will likely make his first start in more than a month having returned to action off the bench at the Etihad Stadium.

Given the significance of this rivalry, Simeone’s rotation policy is likely to be abandoned here, although the Argentine may still look for some fresh legs after a competitive clash in North London on Wednesday. Alexander Sørloth has made a big impact in recent derbies, and he may be drafted in to partner Julián Alvarez up top.

Midfielders Pablo Barrios and Rodrigo Mendoza are out injured for the visitors, while there are two significant absentees at the back. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak is sidelined again, so Juan Musso will start in goal. Defensive regular Marc Pubill has also been ruled out.

Real Madrid to win @ 9/10

While motivation is rarely an issue for either side on Madrid derby day, this game is of much greater importance for Los Blancos. It is far from a season-defining match for Atlético. They may find it tough to match their rivals’ intensity, not least given they’ve had one fewer day to prepare for it, after what turned out to be the tougher midweek test.

While they’ve rarely played well this season, Real Madrid did put in a big performance in the first leg against City. They also hit four against Elche at the Bernabéu last weekend, so confidence levels should be as high as they’ve been at any point in the campaign.

Atleti have only won four road matches all season in La Liga. Their failure to win on this ground since February 2016 also makes the home team look good at odds of 9/10 to win.

Bet Builder - Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals & over 2.5 total offsides @ 6/4

There was a spell when this fixture was almost guaranteed to be a dour, low-scoring affair with a host of 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines in the 2010s. However, we are now in a much more entertaining era as far as meetings between the Spanish capital’s big two are concerned.

With Atlético Madrid a more adventurous side these days, all of the last seven league meetings have seen both teams score. There have been 10 goals scored across the two derbies so far this term, with Real Madrid scoring twice on each occasion. They look good to at least match that feat again here, with their opponents having conceded twice or more in four of their last five games in all competitions.

There may be a slight shift in the home team’s style to accommodate Mbappé back into the lineup. Both the Frenchman and Vinícius do push the limit when it comes to being offside, while Atleti will also seek to play on the break and hit their rivals with some fast counterattacks.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals and Over 2.5 offsides at 6/4.

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