Gremio vs Botafogo Prediction: Carlos to keep cool amidst card chaos

Gremio and Botafogo, who experienced contrasting fortunes in the Brazilian Serie A's opening round last week, losing 2-1 at Fluminense and thrashing Cruzeiro 4-0, respectively, face off at the Arena do Gremio in Porto Alegre on Thursday (00:30 GMT).

Below are my Gremio vs Botafogo predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Martin Braithwaite (Achilles) and Mathias Villasanti (knee) are out injured for Luis Castro's Gremio, who drew 1-1 with Juventude in the Campeonato Gaucho on Saturday.

Arthur Melo and Cristian Pavon were both sent off in that stalemate, but their suspensions don't apply to Serie A.

Football Odds

Neither Joaquin Correa nor Chris Ramos (both unspecified) have made a matchday squad for Botafogo this year, and it looks as if head coach Martin Anselmi will have to make do without the duo again on Thursday.

Gremio vs Botafogo Odds

Gremio, who have failed to win any of the last four head-to-heads (D2, L2), are 5/4 favourites to collect all three points in Porto Alegre, implying a 44.4% probability of success, while Botafogo, who finished sixth last season, three places and 14 points ahead of the Imortal Tricolor, are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to make it two Serie A wins from two this year.

The draw is offered at 11/5, both teams to score, which was a winning selection in both meetings last year, at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Booking Points Over/Under +52.5 - Over 52.5 @ 5/6

Five yellow cards, amounting to 50 booking points, were awarded in the last head-to-head between these two in November, but the previous three all went over the 52.5 mark (65, 85, 60).

Gremio were involved in a heated game last weekend, with four yellows and three reds, totalling 125 booking points, produced, while Botafogo's 1-0 defeat to Fluminense in the Carioca - Taca Guanabara finished with five yellows (50 booking points).

Today's Football Fixtures

I can see things getting tasty again on Thursday, so over 52.5 booking points, at just under EVS, is my best bet.

Anytime Goalscorer - Carlos Vinicius (GRE) @ 13/10

Former Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham forward Carlos Vinicius set Serie A alight last season after joining midway through from the Cottagers.

The 30-year-old scored 12 times in 14 appearances (12 starts), netting at least once in his final five outings (12 goals), including one in a 3-2 defeat at Botafogo on November 22.

The Brazilian has made a strong start to 2026, too, notching three times in six Gaucho games, and his strike against Fluminense in Serie A last week made it six consecutive top-flight fixtures with a goal.

Can he extend that run to seven on Thursday? I think so, against a side he plotted a way past only a couple of months ago.