USA vs Belgium Prediction: Bad boy Balogun to stay in the spotlight

Drama and controversy surrounding Folarin Balogun’s suspended red card has taken over the build-up to USA’s last-16 tie with Belgium in Seattle, but on the pitch we should be in for a thriller. 

This one kicks off at 5pm local (1am Tuesday, BST), and is live on BBC One, as Mauricio Pochettino looks to lead USA to their first World Cup quarter-final since 2002. Read on for my USA vs Belgium predictions featuring team news and more.

Team News

How can we not start with Balogun? After his red card against Bosnia-Herzegovina, he was set to be suspended for this game, but reportedly, a phone call from Donald Trump to FIFA president Gianni Infantino got the wheels in motion to change all that. 

FIFA have now opened a can of worms by suspending his sentence, meaning he is allowed to play here. It means he will play down the middle, flanked by Christian Pulisic and Sergino Dest. Ricardo Pepi will take his spot on the bench having looked likely to start if Balogun was absent. 

Belgium boss Rudi Garcia has to decide on whether to start Romelu Lukaku up top in this one, or stick with Charles De Ketelaere. My feeling is Lukaku will be given the nod to lead the line, ahead of that dangerous trio of Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku. 

USA vs Belgium Odds

USA are priced at 6/4 to win this game in 90 minutes, while Belgium are 7/4, showing just how tight this contest could be. A draw which would force an extra 30 minutes is 5/2, and there are several tempting Price Boosts which you can find on the link above. 

Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven: Get DOUBLE or TREBLE the odds if your winning First Goalscorer bet scores a second and third.

USA to win the tie @ 5/6

I think this is a really good price for USA to progress, based on what we have seen from these two nations so far. USA, apart from that slight stumble against Turkey in their final dead-rubber group game, have been faultless, looking good in wins over Paraguay, Australia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Obviously Belgium represent a step-up in terms of quality, but they have not been impressive at this World Cup. They topped their group with just five points, and then looked dead and buried against Senegal before staging a remarkable and unexpected late comeback. 

With a partisan Lumen Field crowd right behind them, and their star striker back in the mix, I think this tie has turned firmly in the favour of the host nation. Reaching the quarter-finals would be pretty special for the USA and I'm backing them to make it happen.

*Click here for the latest World Cup Odds

Folarin Balogun to score (Sub Switch) @ 11/8

It just has to happen. This pick on Betfred now includes extra-time, while the Sub Switch offer means that if Balogun is taken off and his replacement scores, this selection is also settled as a winner. I don’t usually read too much into ‘narrative’ going into games, but this feels written in the stars (and stripes).

The man who shouldn’t be playing, scoring the goal to potentially win the tie for USA? Yep. It is also worth noting that Balogun has been USA’s standout player during this World Cup, scoring three goals so far, including one against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the last 32. 

Belgium have looked shaky at times, and Senegal tore them apart, so I would be surprised if Balogun isn’t presented with a big goalscoring chance during this tie. With extra-time also included, I think there is value to be had backing the villain of this piece to find the net.

Betfred's Sub Switch offer rolls your bet to the oncoming substitute, so you stay in the game, even when your player doesn’t.