Paraguay vs Ecuador Prediction: 0-0 best bet for tight encounter

The South American qualifiers come to their conclusion in September and with just two fixtures to play, we already know that Argentina, Ecuador and Brazil will be playing at the 2026 World Cup.

Paraguay only need a point over these two matches to confirm their place at next summer’s tournament, and they will host Ecuador at Defensores del Chaco Stadium (00:30 BST, Friday). Below you can find my Paraguay vs Ecuador predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Attacking midfielder Julio Enciso is out of the Paraguay squad with an injury, having made the move from Brighton and Hove Albion to Strasbourg/Chelsea this summer. What a fun world of transfers we now live in. 

Omar Alderete of Sunderland is included while defender Alexis Duarte will hope to win his first cap for his country. Future Chelsea signing - sorry I mean current Brighton midfielder Diego Gomez is also available and should play a key role in the upcoming fixtures. 

Football Odds

Alan Franco will not be able to feature for Ecuador after getting sent off against Peru, with Angelo Preciado likely to replace him. Willian Pacho of PSG and recent Arsenal signing Piero Hincapie, are joined by Pervis Estupinan and Joel Ordonez in a top-quality back line.

Enner Valencia will captain the side once again while Moises Caicedo should feature in the midfield.

Paraguay vs Ecuador Odds

Paraguay are priced at 13/10 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 44%. Ecuador are 11/5 to secure an away win and a draw is 9/5.

Over 2.5 goals is 13/8 in Asuncion, while BTTS is 6/5 and Valencia is the favourite to score first at 11/2. 

Draw @ 9/5

Paraguay only need a draw to make it to the World Cup, and having won their last five home games on the trot during this qualification campaign, including an impressive victory over Argentina, I think they are in a good position to get what they want. 

Ecuador are a top-class outfit and a stubborn side, so I’m not expecting fireworks in the Paraguayan capital, while I also think game state needs to be taken into account. Paraguay’s final qualifier is away against Peru where anything could happen, so they will be desperate to get over the line on home soil. 

If the game is in the balance late on, expect the hosts to take a conservative approach to wrapping up qualification, rather than chasing three points they don’t actually need to book themselves a place at a World Cup for the first time since 2010. A draw looks like the best bet. 

Correct score - Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador @ 5/1

Let's take what I’ve just said about a point being enough for the hosts, and Ecuador potentially rotating players with qualification already secured and plump for a correct scoreline. I’ve already praised Ecuador’s magnificent defence in the team news, but the statistics really are astonishing. 

They’ve conceded just five goals in 16 South American qualifying matches, four fewer than the world champions Argentina. They’ve let in just one goal in their last nine, with five of those games ending 0-0. They are currently on a staggering run of three 0-0s in a row, with stalemates against Chile, Brazil and Peru all coming in 2025. Following that pattern then, leads us to this 5/1 pick.

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