Moldova vs Italy Prediction: Dimarco to end barren run for Gli Azzurri

Trailing Group I leaders Norway by three points in World Cup qualification, Italy travel to Moldova on Thursday (19:45 GMT, Amazon Prime Video) for a must-win game at Stadionul Zimbru. With the Norwegians expected to take care of Estonia in Oslo on the same evening, though, the Italians’ result may not matter anyway, given the huge goal difference swing in favour of Stale Solbakken’s side.

Below are my Moldova vs Italy predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Uncapped Sheriff Tiraspol goalkeeper Victor Straistari has been forced to withdraw from the Moldova squad due to injury.

Triestina midfielder Artur Ionita, who has earned 79 caps for his country, is the most experienced international in the home side’s squad, while Maccabi Tel Aviv forward Ion Nicolaescu, also included, is Moldova’s all-time leading marksman with 17 goals.

Football Odds

Fiorentina striker Moise Kean, who started and scored in Italy’s 3-1 win in Estonia last month, has been forced to pull out of Gennaro Gattuso’s squad due to injury. The 25-year-old has been replaced by Bologna winger Nicolo Cambiaghi, who made his national team debut on October 14 in Udine in the final minutes of the 3-0 victory over Israel.

Inter Milan midfielder Nicolo Barella will miss Thursday’s game as he serves a suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards.

Moldova vs Italy Odds

Moldova are 50/1, or a 2% chance, to beat Italy, who are 1/20 (95.2%) to do the double over the Tricolours, with the draw priced at 14/1.

Home Team Total Corners Over/Under +2.5 - Over 2.5 @ 5/2

Moldova have only picked up one point from six games so far, and they’ve endured a few drubbings in Group I, losing 5-0 at home to Norway, 4-0 at home to Israel and 11-1 away to Norway.

However, Italy only managed to score twice in a 2-0 win on home soil in June, and Moldova recorded an impressive 18 shots at goal, six of which hit the target, and six corners taken.

Today's Football Fixtures

Moldova have taken at least three corners in four of their six qualifiers so far, including all three home games against Norway (six), Estonia (five) and Israel (three).

Italy, meanwhile, have conceded 3+ corners in five of their six group matches, so 5/2 for over 2.5 home corners on Thursday looks like great value.

Anytime Goalscorer - Federico Dimarco (ITA) @ 18/5

It's tough to find value in this game as Italy are such heavy favourites, so the best bet, in my opinion, is backing a visiting defender to score.

Inter Milan wing-back Federico Dimarco sticks out to me at 18/5 as he is someone always willing to have a go at goal.

The 28-year-old is averaging 1.5 shots (0.5 shots on target) in Serie A this season, scoring twice, and in the Uefa Champions League, he's averaging 2.8 shots per game, despite one of his four appearances coming from the bench.

In World Cup qualifying, Dimarco is averaging two shots per game (0.7 shots on target), although he is yet to notch for his country this term.

Dimarco has three goals in 34 caps for Italy, last scoring for Gli Azzurri in September 2024, so it feels like he's due one on the international stage.

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