Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Los Blancos set for semis

A blockbuster clash comes our way in the Club World Cup on Saturday night as Real Madrid face Borussia Dortmund at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey (21:00 BST, live on Betfred). Xabi Alonso will face a German side for the first time as Real Madrid boss, having come up against Dortmund many times while playing for Bayern Munich. 

Below you will find my Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund predictions, featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

Kylian Mbappe made his first appearance of the tournament after his bout of gastroenteritis by coming off the bench against Juventus, and it will be interesting to see whether he starts this one. His replacement Gonzalo Garcia has bagged four goal involvements so far, and may keep hold of his place as a result. 

Alonso may also have to factor in the risk of suspension for the semi-finals. Vincius Jr. and Jude Bellingham would miss the game against PSG or Bayern Munich if they get another yellow, but the manager is unlikely to leave two key players out. 

Trent Alexander-Arnold is likely to play on the right side of the defence, while Arda Guler is also set to feature having started against the Old Lady. Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao were back in the matchday squad against Juventus after long-term injuries and could be involved. 

Borussia Dortmund will be without Jobe Bellingham through suspension, meaning there will be no reunion with his brother in this quarter-final. Marcel Sabitzer should start in his place, while Serhou Guirassy scored twice in the last-16 win over Monterrey and will lead the line. 

Julian Brandt is trying to force his way into the XI, but Karim Adeyemi is guaranteed a start after two assists in his last appearance. At the back, Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton and Niklas Sule should start as the back three. 

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Real Madrid are the favourites to win this quarter-final, priced at 4/6 to get the job done in 90 minutes. That gives them an implied win probability of 60%, while Dortmund can be backed at 4/1. A draw and extra time is 10/3, while over 2.5 goals is 4/7.

BTTS is 8/13 and Kylian Mbappe is the favourite to open the scoring at just 3/1. 

Real Madrid to win @ 4/6

I know this is a boring selection but I don’t want to overcomplicate things in search of a winner. Real Madrid just always seem to get the better of Dortmund and I think it will happen again here. These two met in the 2024 UEFA Champions League final of course, as Real Madrid came out 2-0 winner - while they’ve not lost to Dortmund in any of their last six meetings. 

Jurgen Klopp was BVB manager the last time they secured a win over Los Blancos back in 2014 (2-0), but even that came with an asterisk as they were eliminated from the UCL having lost the first leg 3-0. With Mbappe likely to play some part at Madrid having won their last three games in a row, I can’t see anything other than a victory for Alonso’s men. 

Dortmund have had an extremely kind run up to this stage, beating Mamelodi Sundowns, Ulsan HD and Monterrey to get to the last eight. This is obviously a step up, and one I don’t believe they will be able to cope with. 

Gonzalo Garcia to score first @ 4/1

The 21-year-old Real Madrid academy product has been making something of a name for himself in youth football, but he’s burst onto the scene at this Club World Cup. With Mbappe sidelined, he’s been given the chance to shine, starting three of the four matches so far. 

In those three starts he has scored three goals, having only made three substitute appearances in La Liga at the back end of the campaign. He’s clearly a massive talent and I’m taking a gamble on Mbappe not quite being sharp enough to start this fixture. 4/1 on Gonzalo to score first is my second selection - but it may be worth waiting for the team news to come out before you take the plunge. 

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