Sigma Olomouc vs Mainz 05 Prediction: A cagey first leg in the Czech Republic

Sigma Olomouc scraped into the Uefa Conference League knockout phase play-offs, finishing 24th in the 36-team table to set up a two-legged tie with Lausanne, who they beat 3-1 on aggregate last month.

The Czech side’s reward is a last-16 tie with German club Mainz 05, who ended up seventh in the league phase table, six points clear of their next opponents. Below are my Sigma Olomouc vs Mainz 05 predictions, alongside the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Thursday’s first leg at Andruv Stadion (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 7).

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Midfielder Abdoulaye Sylla is suspended for the first leg after receiving his third yellow card of the campaign in Sigma Olomouc’s 2-1 win at Lausanne in the second leg of their knockout phase play-off tie on February 26.

David Tkac, Michal Leibl (both muscle), John Dembe and Jan Kral (both knee) will have a watching brief on Thursday, too.

Football Odds

As for Mainz 05, Nadiem Amiri (heel), Anthony Caci (thigh) and Benedict Hollerbach (Achilles) are among those set to miss out in Olomouc.

Sigma Olomouc vs Mainz 05 Odds

Sigma Olomouc are 10/3 underdogs to win on home soil, implying a 23.1% probability of success, while Mainz 05 are 4/5 favourites (55.6%), with the draw offered at 13/5.

Match Result - Mainz 05 @ 4/5

Mainz enjoyed a strong league-phase campaign, winning four of their six games (D1, L1), and they head into Thursday’s contest with just one defeat in their last seven matches (W3, D3).

Their away record in the league phase is a slight concern as they won one, drew one and lost one, but they were reduced to 10 men in the 66th minute of their 1-1 draw at Lech Poznan, and their 1-0 defeat at Universitatea Craiova was brought about by a successful penalty kick from the home side’s Assad Al-Hamlawi.

Today's Football Fixtures

Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, lost half (three) of their league-phase games, winning just one of their three at home (D1, L1). The Czech club failed to beat Lausanne at home in the first leg of their knockout phase play-off tie, too, drawing 1-1 with the Swiss side.

It might be tight, but I expect the away outfit’s superior quality to shine through on Thursday. 

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 10/11

All but one of Mainz’s league-phase fixtures saw two or fewer goals scored, and the outlier was a 2-1 home victory over Fiorentina on November 6, when just the three strikes were recorded.

Three of Mainz’s last five Bundesliga matches have gone under 2.5 goals, too.

Sigma Olomouc’s final four league-phase contests all finished 2-1, two in their favour, and two against, while their first couple of games ended in a 2-0 loss and 1-1 draw away to Fiorentina and at home to Rakow, respectively.

First legs can be cagey affairs, and while Mainz are the superior side, they may be happy to avoid defeat or take a slender victory back to Germany next week, while Sigma Olomouc would probably settle for the same.