Chelsea vs Southampton Prediction: Palmer to end drought

Back-to-back Premier League defeats to Brighton (3-0) and Aston Villa (2-1) have piled the pressure on Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca, whose Blues side have dropped from second in December to seventh ahead of Tuesday's visit of Southampton to Stamford Bridge (20:15, TNT Sports 1). Luckily for the hosts, the Saints are in an even darker place, losing eight of their last nine league games, and are staring at an instant return to the Championship.

Below are my Chelsea vs Southampton predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek meeting in west London.

Team News

Romeo Lavia, Benoit Badiashile, Nicolas Jackson (all thigh), Noni Madueke Wesley Fofana, Marc Guiu and Omar Kellyman (all muscle) are out injured for Chelsea, who remain without the suspended Mkyhailo Mudryk.

Trevoh Chalobah was substituted in the eighth minute of Saturday's defeat at Villa Park with an apparent back issue and he has been ruled out for seven to 10 days. Tosin Adarabioyo, who replaced Chalobah in Birmingham, is likely to fill in for the 25-year-old.

Jadon Sancho was the only other substitute used by Maresca, replacing Christopher Nkunku in the 76th minute. Sancho should start against Southampton, which could mean Enzo Fernandez dropping back to a midfield two with Moises Caicedo and Reece James dropping out of the line-up as Maresca looks to manage his minutes.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Josh Acheampong and new signing Mathis Amougou will also be hoping for opportunities against the Saints having all remained rooted to the bench at Villa Park.

Football Odds

Taylor Harwood-Bellis (ankle), Adam Lallana (thigh), Ross Stewart and Ryan Fraser (both calf) all missed Southampton's 4-0 home defeat to Brighton on Saturday and remain in the South Coast club's treatment room.

Jan Bednarek became the latest centre-back to suffer an injury, lasting just 12 minutes on Saturday before being forced off. With Jack Stephens not being rushed back following his lay-off, forgotten man Armel Bella-Kotchap, frozen out by previous boss Russell Martin, was called upon at St Mary's Stadium.

The German now looks likely to make his first Premier League start for nearly two years on Tuesday.

Flynn Downes, Albert Gronbaek, Ryan Manning, Will Smallbone, Yukinari Sugawara and Paul Onuachu were all named as substitutes on Saturday and could come into Ivan Juric's thinking as he ponders changes to his starting XI at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Southampton Odds

Chelsea have suffered in the last couple of months but their home record remains solid having lost just once there - to Fulham (1-2) on Boxing Day - since an opening weekend loss to Manchester City (0-2) on August 18. The Blues battered Southampton in December's reverse fixture at St Mary's, winning 5-1, and are heavy favourites (1/5) to do the double over the Premier League stragglers, who are 10/1, or a 9.1% chance, to pull off a shock.

The draw is priced at 11/2, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 3.5 total goals at 8/11.

Price Boosts - Chelsea to Win Both Halves, Chelsea Most Corners & Southampton Most Booking Points @ 3/1 4/1

All three of the selections in this price boost landed in the reverse fixture as Chelsea ran riot on the South Coast.

The Blues were 3-1 ahead at the interval and added another two without reply in the second half; Axel Disasi (now on loan at Aston Villa), Nkunku, Madueke, Cole Palmer and Sancho scored for the visitors with Joe Aribo briefly getting the hosts on level terms in the 11th minute.

Southampton sacked Martin two games later but things haven't got much better under Juric as they have lost eight of their nine Premier League matches under the Croatian, a 2-1 win at Ipswich Town on February 1 proving to be the exception to the rule so far.

The Saints have lost both halves three times under Juric and while Chelsea have performed poorly post-Christmas, they are unbeaten at Stamford Bridge this calendar year, drawing 2-2 there to AFC Bournemouth and beating Wolves 3-1 in January before overcoming West Ham United 2-1 earlier this month.

Tuesday represents a perfect opportunity for the club to get back on track and regain some confidence by blitzing a sorry Saints side and I expect Maresca's men to take their chance with both hands by winning both halves.

The second leg of this price boost requires Chelsea to take the most corners; at St Mary's in December, the Blues won seven, two more than their hosts that evening.

Chelsea have taken 153 corners in the Premier League this season, averaging 5.9 per game, while Saints' total of 113 works out as 4.3 per game.

The Blues have won the corner count in nine of their 12 league home matches in 2024/25 and it's a no-brainer to back them to make it 10 out of 13 on Tuesday in a contest they should dominate.

For the third and final leg, we need the visitors to be shown the most booking points.

In the reverse fixture, Southampton picked up one yellow card (for Adam Armstrong) and one straight red (for Stephens), earning 10 and 25 booking points respectively. Those add up to 35 booking points while Chelsea avoided any disciplinary action, despite making double (14) the number of fouls made by their opponents.

Chelsea (74) and Southampton (72) have received the most yellow cards in the Premier League this season but the Saints (three) have picked up two more red cards than the Blues (one), and have therefore been awarded more booking points.

Bet Builder - Cole Palmer (CHE) Anytime Goalscorer, Kamaldeen Sulemana (SOU) 2+ Shots @ 13/5

Chelsea's main man is without a goal or assist in his last six appearances, by far his longest streak since joining the Blues in August 2023. His last direct goal contribution was in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth on January 14 when he opened the scoring against the Cherries, netting his 14th Premier League goal of the season.

The 22-year-old has taken 17 shots in the top flight since that strike, failing to get past any of Wolves, Manchester City, West Ham, Brighton or Villa, although more than a third (six) have been on target.

He came closest to scoring on Saturday as his effort was cleared off the line by a Villa defender with Argentine goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez beaten.

Palmer hasn't been helped by his teammates but he too deserves criticism for his performances and must improve alongside others.

Southampton at home looks like a great game to regain some confidence, both for him and the rest of Chelsea's players, and I expect him to score at least once to end his drought.

I do expect the visitors to cause one or two problems, though, with Kamaldeen Sulemana a rare bright spark for them in recent months.

The Ghanaian was used sparingly under Martin but has started four of the Saints' last six league games he has been available for including the last two, shooting 12 times across that period.

He only managed one at the weekend against Brighton but recorded five attempts at Bournemouth prior to that and can cause Chelsea some trouble on Tuesday.

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