Stuttgart vs PSG Prediction: Barcola to rise to occasion again

There are 18 games being played simultaneously in the Uefa Champions League league phase on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 8) but perhaps the biggest of them all comes from the MHP Arena in Germany as Stuttgart take on reigning French league champions Paris Saint-Germain. As it stands, both Stuttgart (24th) and PSG (22nd), level on 10 points, will finish in the top 24 and qualify for the knockout round play-offs, but only a win will guarantee their entry.

Below is my Stuttgart vs PSG prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Stuttgart defender Anthony Rouault received his third yellow card of the league-phase campaign in last Tuesday's 3-1 win over Slovan Bratislava in Slovakia and will serve a one-game ban in midweek. The 23-year-old partnered Jeff Chabot in the centre of defence against Slovan but had a new partner in Ameen Al-Dakhil for Saturday's 2-0 Bundesliga defeat at Mainz; Chabot and Al-Dakhil could start and form a third different centre-back pairing in as many games.

Meanwhile, Dan-Axel Zagadou (knee), Justin Diehl (hamstring) and El Bilal Toure (foot) are sidelined through injury.

Football Odds

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia made his PSG debut in Saturday's 1-1 Ligue 1 draw with Reims but is ineligible to feature on Wednesday, so Bradley Barcola will take his place in the starting XI after beginning on the bench against Les Rouges et Blancs.

Ousmane Dembele struck the opening goal on the weekend after scoring as a second-half substitute earlier in the week against Manchester City, whom the Ligue 1 leaders beat 4-2 at the Parc des Princes. Dembele has scored in all four calendar year appearances so far and has only blanked in one of his last seven outings, so he's someone Stuttgart will have to be on guard against.

Joao Neves remained rooted to the bench on Saturday but is a certainty to return to the starting XI in midweek following his Player of the Match heroics against Man City. Willian Pacho and Vitinha, who were second-half substitutes against Reims, should also be restored to Luis Enrique's lineup from the off.

Ibrahim Mbaye (ankle) remains in the treatment room, while left-back Nuno Mendes will have to be replaced as he, like Rouault, serves a one-match ban for an accumulation of yellow cards.

Stuttgart vs PSG Odds

Stuttgart won four consecutive matches before falling to defeat against Mainz on Saturday and they are 5/2 to serve up a third straight success in the Champions League on Wednesday, implying a win probability of 28.6%. PSG, meanwhile, are unbeaten since losing 1-0 to Bayern Munich on November 26, winning eight of their last 12 games, and are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, to record a third successive victory in Europe.

The draw, which may or may not be enough for one or both sides to finish in the top 24, depending on other results, is priced at 8/5, and both teams to score is available at 8/11.

Stuttgart striker Deniz Undav and PSG forward Goncalo Ramos (both 2/1) head the anytime goalscorer market in Germany.

Both Teams to Score & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Yes & Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10

Both teams to score has been a winner in five of Stuttgart's seven league-phase games including their last three, while it's landed three times in PSG matches, most famously last week as the Parisians came from two goals down to beat Man City 4-2 in the French capital.

That was the third time this season in the Champions League that at least three goals had been scored in a game involving PSG, and all three have come in their last four competition outings, with both teams scoring on two of those occasions.

Over 2.5 total goals has landed in four Stuttgart European contests in 2024/25 and both teams found the net in all four.

There are suggestions that both teams would be content with a stalemate toward the end of the 90 minutes if other results are going their way, but there is not enough leeway in the opening stages for either side to consider waiting for that scenario to unfold, so I expect both Stuttgart and PSG to attack from the outset.

Certainly, neither side has been strong defensively in this season's Champions League, with Stuttgart recording just a single shutout and PSG only keeping two clean sheets.

The strength of both teams lies in attack, as evidenced by the eight goals plundered by Stuttgart in their last two European outings, and the seven struck by PSG in their last two.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals is my best bet from what should be a cracking contest on Wednesday.

Anytime Goalscorer - Bradley Barcola (PSG) @ 23/10

I was torn between Barcola and Dembele here, with both priced at 23/10 to score anytime in Stuttgart. I've opted for the former, but much of the reasoning for Barcola can also be applied to Dembele, and it was really a toss of a coin with both in such superb form recently.

Barcola was only introduced for the last half an hour of Saturday's draw with Reims but with Kvaretskhelia ineligible to feature in the league phase for PSG, the 22-year-old should be reinstated to the starting XI, and that spells trouble for the hosts.

The France international has scored in each of his last three starts, all of which have been in different competitions. Barcola scored PSG's third in a 4-2 Coupe de France victory at Espaly on January 15, followed that effort up with the winner in a 2-1 triumph at Lens three days later, and ended a successful eight days with the equaliser in his side's 4-2 win over Man City last Wednesday.

That strike against the 2023 champions was his 13th in all competitions this season and he is really starting to establish himself as one of Europe's top wingers.

The recent arrival of Kvaretskhelia has only increased the competition at PSG and so Barcola will have to maintain - and likely increase - his level if he harbours ambitions of being a regular starter for Luis Enrique's side going forward.

I'm backing Barcola to step up again on Wednesday and show his unerring ability in front of goal.

Offers

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Wednesday's Champions League Predictions:

The team here at Betfred Insights have you fully-covered for the final round of Champions League matches this Wednesday. You can check out all of our previews for the matches below:

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