Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: An Istanbul booking for Baena

After winning their last three Uefa Champions League games, Atletico Madrid are now gunning for a top-eight finish in the league phase, but their resolve will be severely tested on Wednesday (17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 10) as they take a trip to Istanbul, Turkey, to take on Galatasaray. The hosts can move level on points with their Spanish counterparts by securing maximum points at Rams Park, where they are unbeaten since November 25.

Below are my Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Metehan Baltaci (suspended), Wilfried Singo (muscle), Gabriel Sara (knee) and Arda Unyay (thigh) are out for Galatasaray, while it remains to be seen if Victor Osimhen, an unused substitute in Nigeria's third-place play-off victory over Egypt at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations last Saturday, is thrown straight back into Okan Buruk's starting XI on Wednesday.

Football Odds

Atletico Madrid are missing Nico Gonzalez (thigh) and Clement Lenglet (knee) due to injury, while Diego Simeone could make changes to the starting XI that lined up in Sunday's 1-0 victory over Alaves in La Liga.

Robin Le Normand, Nahuel Molina, Koke Alex Baena and Antoine Griezmann are all vying for starts after coming off the bench on the weekend.

Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Galatasaray, who won their opening two home games in the league phase before suffering a 1-0 defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise at Rams Park, are 23/10, or a 30.3% chance, to claim all three points on Wednesday, with Atletico Madrid 11/10, implying a 47.6% probability of success, and the draw offered at 11/4.

Betfred's Price Boosts include Atletico's Julian Alvarez To Score The First Goal at 5/1 (was 4/1).

Bet Builder - Davinson Sanchez (GAL) & David Hancko (ATM) Total Shots - 1+ Each @ 11/5

Atletico have conceded at least one shot to an opposition centre-back in five of their six European outings this season, with Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk, Arsenal's Gabriel Magalhaes and Union Saint Gilloise's Ross Sykes all getting on the scoresheet in games against Los Rojiblancos.

Last time out, PSV's Armando Obispo only came off the bench at the start of the second half and still managed to record a couple of shots in Eindhoven, making it three out of three away matches where Atletico have conceded a shot to an opposition centre-back, with Van Dijk and Gabriel registering three apiece.

Today's Football Fixtures

Galatasaray centre-back Davinson Sanchez has shot five times across his three home games against Eintracht Frankfurt (two), Liverpool (one) and Union Saint-Gilloise (two), and he's someone his side will look to from free-kicks and corners on Wednesday.

I'm also backing Atletico defender David Hancko to shoot at least once, as he has done in all four of his Champions League contests this season against Arsenal (two), USG (one), Inter Milan (one) and PSV (one), scoring against the latter.

Like Atletico, Galatasaray have conceded at least one shot to an opposition centre-back in five of their six league-phase matches, including all three at Rams Park.

Player to Receive a Card - Alex Baena (ATM) @ 11/4

Atletico's Baena was dropped down to the bench for Sunday's victory over Alaves, but I'm expecting him to return to the starting XI in Istanbul, where, as the left winger, he will likely be up against Galatasaray's right-back, Roland Sallai, who has won nine fouls across his six Champions League appearances this season (1.7 per 90 minutes).

Ajax right-back Anton Gaaei was cautioned for upending the Hungary international, who was playing as a left-winger, in a 3-0 win for Galatasaray in Amsterdam last November.

Baena is yet to be booked in four European appearances this season, but he's committed two fouls in each of his two starts, averaging 2.3 fouls per 90. In La Liga, the 24-year-old is averaging 2.2 fouls per 90 and has received two yellows in 12 matches (nine starts).

Last season, the Spain international picked up nine La Liga yellows for Villarreal, while in 2022/23 and 2023/24, he received 11 yellows and one red, and 13 yellows and one red, respectively.

So, Baena is no stranger to a card, and in a high-stakes away game, facing an opponent who is well-versed in drawing fouls, the 11/4 price on the Atletico man to receive a card takes my fancy.

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