Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: A fourth-straight stalemate for hosts?

Central Coast Mariners' 2024/25 season has lurched from one disaster to the next, and after eight games spread across the Australia A-League Men's, the Australia Cup, and the AFC Champions League, the Gosford club are still yet to record a victory. Next up for the reigning Premiership champions is a clash with last season's runners-up Wellington Phoenix, who pitch up at Industree Group Stadium on Sunday (05:00, TNT Sports 2) looking to bounce back after last weekend's 2-0 defeat to Auckland in the New Zealand derby.

Below is my Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Central Coast Mariners were dealt a huge blow this week with the news that influential midfielder Brad Tapp, who has also filled in at the heart of defence, has suffered an ACL injury and will be out for an "extended period of time". The 23-year-old joins fellow long-term absentee Trent Sainsbury in the treatment room.

The Mariners came from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Chinese side Shanghai Shenhua in the AFC Champions League on Tuesday thanks to goals from substitutes James Ngro and Bailey Brandtman, who have done their chances of starting Sunday no harm.

Alou Kuol also came on in the second half of that continental clash and he could come into the starting XI for ex-Leeds United man Ryan Edmondson.

Football Odds

Lukas Kelly-Heald remains injured for Wellington Phoenix, who have omitted Fin Conchie from the extended squad for the trip to Gosford.

Paulo Retre is back in contention, however, and could make his Nix debut on Sunday after recovering from injury.

Mohamed Al-Taay was an unused substitute against Auckland but could start at Industree Group Stadium, where Marco Rojas could make his second full debut for the club after making his A-League comeback appearance for the New Zealanders in last weekend's defeat.

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

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Central Coast Mariners are 23/20 to triumph for the first time this term, giving Sunday's hosts an implied win probability of 46.5%, while Wellington Phoenix are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to record back-to-back away victories.

The draw is priced at 21/10, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Match Result - Draw @ 21/10

There wasn't much to separate the two sides last season, as the Mariners finished just two points ahead of their nearest challengers. After playing out a February goalless draw in Wellington, the Gosford club's late 2-1 win at Industree Group Stadium in April proved decisive in the Premiership title race.

Angel Torres put the hosts ahead in New South Wales and after Benjamin Old equalised in the 78th minute, the Mariners required a stoppage-time strike from Mikael Doka to claim all three points.

The result prevented a third-straight stalemate between the teams, and in fact, three of the previous four head-to-heads had ended all square.

Draws were fairly common for the Nix last year, with 29.6 per cent (eight) of their 27 regular season A-League Men's contests ending in one.

The Mariners only drew four times in the league last season but are already on three from as many games this term, while they experienced their first continental stalemate of the campaign in midweek, meaning they have drawn their last three games in all competitions, and four of their last five.

Sunday's visitors to Gosford opened up their A-League Men's campaign by sharing the points with Western United, being held to a 1-1 at home on October 20, and they will be desperate to avoid back-to-back defeats after last weekend's disappointment against Auckland.

Giancarlo Italiano's side would probably take a draw if offered to them, and while the Mariners will be eager to get their first win of the season, their AFC Champions League efforts in midweek may have taken a lot out of them.

A draw could be on the cards here.

First Half Total Goals - Under 0.5 @ 7/4

The Mariners' three league games so far this season have been far from classics; Mark Jackson's side have been held to goalless draws by Melbourne Victory and Perth Glory either side of a 1-1 stalemate at Adelaide United.

Meanwhile, each of Wellington's matches have seen exactly two goals, and there haven't been more than three strikes in a head-to-head between the pair since October 2022 - so I'm not expecting a goalfest on Sunday.

CCM's first halves have been particularly poor with just one goal scored so far - and that was by Adelaide United's Luka Jovanovic.

Wellington haven't conceded in a first half this season and while they have scored twice before the interval - once against Western United and once v Perth Glory - both goals arrived late in the half, in the second minute of stoppage time and the 39th minute, respectively.

The first goal in the most recent meeting between the Mariners and the Nix only arrived in the 61st minute in April, with both games last season failing to see a first-half strike.

With neither team in terrific form, we could see a tense opening period this weekend, so I fancy under 0.5 first-half total goals at 7/4.

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