Sri Lanka v India Prediction: 9/1 and 14/1 Prop Bets for 3rd ODI

The 3rd ODI between Sri Lanka and India will be played on August 7 in Colombo with a start time of 10.00 BST  after Sri Lanka’s brilliant comeback win on Sunday.  The match will be broadcast live on TNT Sports

James Pacheco thinks Sri Lanka are worth a punt if they bat first and there will be big profits to be enjoyed if one of his two other selections – at 14/1 and 9/1 – come off.You can check out his full preview and Sri Lanka vs India Predictions below...

Sri Lanka

If in the next few months they have a lean patch in ODIs, at least they’ll have this win to look back on and remind themselves they can beat anyone on their day.

After posting 240 (10 more than in the tie on Friday) they looked in a decent position but less so when Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill made a good start in reply.

Enter Jeffrey Vandersay - who hadn’t even played in the first game and only came in because star spinner Wanindu Hasaranga was injured - who claimed the wickets of all of India’s Top 4 and ended with 6-33 in the end. He was ably assisted by skipper Charitha Asalanka (more on him later) who ended with 3-20 off 6.2 overs as India’s batsmen just couldn’t handle good, tight spin bowling.

Despite reaching odds of 35.0 in live betting, they ended up winning the game by 32 runs, one of the great ODI comebacks of recent times.

Earlier Avishka Fernando and Kamindu Mendis both made 40 and the impressive Dunith Wellage 39. There are issues with their batting in terms of no-one kicking on for the second game in a row, but their bowling and fielding has been excellent.

Hasaranga is still injured so they’ll probably field the same side.

Possible XI:  Nissanka, A Fernando, K Mendis, Samarawickrama, Asalanka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Kamindu Mendis, A Fernando, Vandersay, Dananjaya.

India

Before being too critical of India, it should first of all be remembered that they’re missing quite a few key players such as Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, Ravindra Jadeja and Hardik Pandya. But still.

These are some of the best players of spin bowling in the world and though there was turn in the Colombo pitch, in normal circumstances Sri Lanka’s twirlers- especially given Hasaranga wasn’t playing- aren’t considered the very best in the business at the moment.

Maybe the likes of Virat Kohli and KL Rahul are a bit rusty or just maybe they just got out to good balls, but this isn’t how Gautam Gambhir would have imagined his first ODI Series in charge would have unfolded.

Washington Sundar was the pick of the bowlers with 3-20, just edging out our selection Kuldeep Yadav (2-33) so should keep his place. Desperate to win this match, India may bring in Rishabh Pant for KL Rahul (out for a duck) and Riyan Parag for Shivam Dube.

Possible XI: Sharma, Gill, Kohli, Iyer, Pant, Parag, Washington, Axar, Kuldeep, Arshdeep, Siraj.

Pitch and conditions

There are no excuses for not knowing what to expect of the Colombo pitch after the first two ODIs were played here.

That 60% win rate batting first held up after the hosts’ remarkable win so there’s your first clue: the team batting first is instantly in pole position.

230-240 batting first and you’ve got a good chance before unleashing the spinners. 250 or more on the board and you should really win the game.

Sri Lanka vs India Odds

Sri Lanka have been cut slightly from 11/4 to 13/5 which is perfectly understandable given they tied the first one and won the second.

Though we hinted at the hosts having a great chance if they batted first, it wasn’t an actual tip, so we have to consider whether it’s worth taking a slightly shorter price ahead of this one.

We think it is, but with a caveat. They need to bat first. If India get first use of the pitch, they can easily do to the hosts what they did to them: make use of spinning conditions to tie the batsmen in knots and reduce scoring opportunities, while bowling straight and getting LBW into play on most deliveries.

So, here’s the plan: if Sri Lanka bat first and are 11/5 or bigger, they’re worth a bet. If they bat second or that price drops to 2/1 or lower, we leave it.

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over on betfred.com

Sri Lanka Top Batsman

Dunith Welllalage has been excellent so far, top-scoring in the first match with 67 not out and getting out for 39 in the second when he needed just one more run for a three-way tie for top bat; and two to be clear winner.

As ever, there’s a bit of a concern that a player batting at 6 or 7 might not get much of a chance. But this is a pitch where you’re never really in and wickets will fall all the way through the innings; so he should get a decent bat and may even be promoted up the order after how well he’s played.

It all makes you think the 14/1 is considerably bigger than it should be on such an in-form player.

Sri Lanka Top Bowler

And now for another big gamble.

New skipper Charith Asalanka hasn’t got many runs so far this Series but has made two mammoth contributions with the ball, bowling 3/30 and 3/20, remarkable considering he’s at best a batting all-rounder.

But this Colombo pitch is one that clearly suits his right arm off-break and at huge odds has tied for top bowler honours in one match and been pretty unlucky to not win the second, after taking three, only to see Vandersay take six.

He’s clearly enjoying himself with the ball and as skipper, can now bowl as much as he likes! They only used six bowlers last time, so you’d think he’ll bowl at least 7 this time round as well. The other thing in our favour is that he’s been bowling later in the innings when there’s more turn and when wickets tend to fall more often. Either way, at 9/1, there’s plenty going for him already.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...