England v New Zealand Prediction: First blood to the Kiwis

England

It seems like an eternity ago that England were being torn apart Down Under by the likes of Mitchell Starc and Travis Head.

So at the very least, they’ve had plenty of time to think about what went wrong not just in that Series, but what’s gone wrong with this England team in general these past few years, as the early positive results of the Bazball became at best mediocre ones, with criticism of the team ranging from poor preparation to reckless batting, off-field indiscipline to lazy fielding.

Despite all that, England haven’t made too many changes ahead of this match. Zak Crawley’s removal as an aggressive opener to accommodate the more traditional approach of uber-reliable Emilio Gay looks a sensible move, and a clue that they’ve rethought the whole approach of going for big shots as early as possible.

Picking specialist spinner Shoaib Bashir rather than the all-round talents of Will Jacks is another nod toward a more conservative approach.

Jacob Bethell has kept the number three slot that Ollie Pope lost during the Ashes, but he’s only just back from injury, and not that IPL form is that significant here, but for what it’s worth, he wasn’t great out in India.

Then there’s the return of Ollie Robinson. He’s been given a second chance by England, and if he fails to deliver here in this Series, he may not get a third.

Likely XI: Gay, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Smith, Stokes, Atkinson, Robinson, Tongue, Bashir

New Zealand

When you’re in a slight state of transition like England are, New Zealand are the last sort of side you’d want to be playing.

As you’re experimenting with a few changes, NZ are doing what they always do and with effective results.

The likes of Matt Henry, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell and Tom Latham seem to have been around forever, but when it comes to Test cricket, that can only be a good thing.

The interesting pick here is Mitchell Santner. He’s mostly known as a white-ball player but if you’re as intelligent a cricketer as he is and as canny with subtle variations, you can see why they wanted him in. Not to mention, his batting is a big asset, given their other spinners are no great shakes with the willow.

Make no mistake: this is a very solid unit with no clear area of weakness.

Likely XI: Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Santner, Smith, Foulkes, Henry, O'Rourke

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Pitch and conditions

Lord’s isn’t a ground where you’d expect big first innings totals. Rather, it’s one of those where batting tends to become a bit easier in the second innings, so bowling first, particularly if it’s a little overcast, should be the way to go.

Looking ahead to the last couple of days, it would be no surprise if the team batting last was chasing a score of around 240-250 to win the Test. Achieving that may be easier said than done.

Match Winner odds

England are 8/11, New Zealand are 2/1 and the draw is 4/1.

The latter is unlikely. After all, only one of the last 10 at Lord’s ended that way, although ironically, it was between these two sides back in 2021. Somewhat low first innings scores of around 220-240 are a big clue as to why draws have been so scarce.

Sure, England are at home, and they’re generally reliable in their own conditions, but then again, aren’t these conditions similar to what the Kiwis have back home?

And aren’t New Zealand at the moment a more settled side than England?

Will they have benefited from that Test match against Ireland last week, where they were ruthless with an innings defeat?

Given that the answers to these questions are yes, yes, and yes, it’s easy to make the case for the 2/1 odds rather than the 8/11 odds. New Zealand it is.

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PickyourPunt - At Least Two of Joe Root, Harry Brook, Kane Williamson, or Daryl Mitchell to Score 100+ Runs

There’s all manner of quirky options on offer if you have a good look in this section but there’s one that catches the eye for me.

Joe Root, Harry Brook, Kane Williamson and Daryl Mitchell are four of the most reliable batsmen in world cricket.

If you don’t believe me, look at their position in the Test rankings. They are Numbers 1, 2, 5 and 14, respectively. Interestingly, they have rather contrasting styles. Whereas Brook scores runs with audacious shots more suited to white-ball cricket, someone like Williamson will nudge one through the covers or flick the ball through the leg side for a single all day. Mitchell has been England’s nemesis for years.

But they’re all class acts who know this ground well and whereas I wouldn’t necessarily bank on any of them to get a century, at least two of them should get to 100 across two knocks each, which they’ll all certainly get the chance to play, so I’m pretty happy with this one.