England v New Zealand Prediction: Root to cash in at Trent Bridge

*You can check out all of our latest Cricket Odds and betting markets over on betfred.com

England  

It's easy to be over-critical of England's defeat to New Zealand last week, but it's probably right that we cut them some slack.  

By 'them' I don't mean Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson, who missed out as a consequence of the punishment they deserved. 

I mean the XI who had to take to the field. Playing under a reluctant captain in Joe Root, missing two of their best wicket-takers, missing in Stokes the man who gives them balance, not having the swashbuckling batting of Jamie Smith to bail them out after a top-order collapse, those XI don't deserve to be blamed too much, despite the manner of the defeat.   

But there should be no excuses if it happens again this time.  

Stokes and Atkinson return after paying the price for ordering some over-priced London club cocktails after midnight (I may have just made up their drink of choice), as does Smith, so England can at least pick close to their best XI . Ollie Robinson is fit for this but was left out anyway. Shoaib Bashir is included, Jofra Archer plays back-to-back Tests, something of a rarity for him.  

Announced XI: Gay, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Smith, Stokes, Atkinson, Tongue, Archer, Bashir

New Zealand  

That Second Test was a good reminder that Test cricket is won by Test cricketers. An obvious thing to say, but the XI the Kiwis put out there were mostly seasoned players who have seen it all before in the longest format, against an XI that weren't.  

At times, all that experience and nous came to the fore, as a good example being Glenn Phillips' excellent century from Number 7 when they were struggling in the first innings, a knock that completely changed the context and momentum of the match. 

Phillips, fellow centurion Henry Nicholls and eventual Player of the match Matt Henry (11 wickets in the game) were all excellent candidates for the match gong, but in typical New Zealand-style, everyone played their part.   

One of those who doesn't let you down is bowling all-rounder Nathan Smith, though he may be sacrificed if they feel they need the spin option of Mitchell Santner.  

Likely XI: Conway, Latham, Ravindra, Nicholls, Mitchell, Phillips, Blundell, Smith, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke 

Pitch and conditions. 

We're at Trent Bridge for this one, so expect a much better batting wicket than in the first two games.  

In fact, if the team batting first doesn't get to at least 380, they will feel they left some runs out there. Batting first is the way to go by the way, as the pitch does get trickier as the game progresses, as you'd expect from a proper Test match wicket. 

There is some rain expected on days two and four to keep the draw merchants interested.  

Match Winner odds 

That draw is 15/2 here with England 4/5 and New Zealand 5/4.  

If you're looking at that high price on the draw, you may take some heart from the fact that there have been two of them here in the last 10, both games between England and India.  

England lost here to South Africa in 2017 and India in 2018 but won the other six, including each of the last three here in Nottingham, against New Zealand, West Indies and Zimbabwe.  

We had a nice winner on New Zealand at 11/8 last time out, and there are very good reasons to side with them again: they look a better, harder-working, more disciplined Test side than England do.  

The slight problem is that batting first is a key advantage here. Whatever problems England have, the likes of Joe Root, Harry Brook and Ben Duckett are certainly capable of making hay first up and then expecting the pitch to help them as the game goes on.  

So we'll serve the 5/4 on New Zealand, knowing we may have missed a trick if they do bat first, while not being interested in the hosts at odds on.  

*You can bet on this match and check out all of the latest and live England vs New Zealand Odds over on betfred.com

Price Boost - Joe Root to score 100+ Total Runs in the match @ 6/4  

Joe Root likes it here in Nottingham. He's played nine Tests at TB and passed 50 on seven occasions, and in five of those seven he went on to raise his bat to celebrate the 100-run milestone.  

He has an overall Test average of 50.81, but his average batting here rises to 68, proof he feels right at home, something not literally true (he is of course a Yorkshire County Cricket player and a proud one at that) at First Class level, but let's remember he's played plenty of cricket here over the past two seasons for the Trent Rockets in The Hundred, so that can only help.  

He hasn't quite hit his straps yet in this Series, but the 46 and 77 at the Oval would have been enough to clear the 100-run mark in that game, and on a much better wicket, we think he can do it again, at a boosted price.  

PickYourPunt: AAP Atkinson & KA Jamieson Both To Take 5+ Wickets Each In The Match @ 15/8 

The other one worth a punt here is this one.  

Kyle Jamieson is an old favourite of ours and has been superb this series, with six wickets in the first game and four in the second. He's finding some good rhythm, some consistent lines and lengths and gets through plenty of overs, so should give us a good run for our money.  

As should Atkinson, who claimed seven scalps in the first game at Lord's before his suspension and averages 4.47 wickets a game so far in his Test career. He has a point to prove here, and that can only help his cause. And ours.