England v New Zealand Prediction: Oval could be fruitful for the Kiwis

England  

Now isn't the time nor place to go into what happened in the aftermath of the First Test, which has been the big story in cricket for the past week.  

So let's consider purely how it may affect things ahead of this one. Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson miss out after their post-win celebrations, as does Ollie Robinson, who is unfit once again.  

It says a thing or two about Stokes right now that he's arguably the least important miss of the three purely from a playing perspective.  

Stokes' place effectively goes to specialist batter Jordan Cox, finally making his Test debut after carrying the drinks for the best part of two years, while Robinson is replaced by Jofra Archer and Shoaib Bashir makes way for one-cap man Matt Fisher, who last played four years ago,  

So no specialist spinner, while Archer's fitness in the longest format is one to keep an eye on.  

Joe Root leads the team. James Rew is a late replacement with Jamie Smith missing the match after the birth of his second child.

Announced XI:  Gay, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Rew, Cox, Archer, Tongue, Fisher, Baker 

New Zealand  

NZ may see the First Test as one that got away after such a solid start to the game. There wasn't much wrong with their bowling, but no batter really managed to get going with no one getting to 50 in either innings. Instead, it was Kyle Jamieson (38) and Glenn Phillips who top-scored with 38 and 44 in the two innings from numbers 9 and 8 respectively.  

There's no Kane Williamson after he retired from international cricket. I've always found it a bit odd to walk away mid-Series. What exactly has changed in the last week that made him think enough is enough? Sure, he struggled in the First Test, and if he doesn't feel right, then so be it, but wouldn't he have known that he wasn't in a good space before getting on a plane and flying halfway round the world? For what it's worth, he's looked in a funk for a while now, but the timing is still odd.  

The experienced Henry Nicholls will come in at three on the back of strong domestic form, while the rest of the side picks itself.  

Matt Henry had a quiet game last time out and they'll need more from him.  

Likely XI:   Conway, Latham, Ravindra, Nicholls, Mitchell, Phillips, Blundell, Smith, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke 

Pitch and conditions. 

We don't expect the Oval to play as tough as Lord's, but it should still be a good contest between bat and ball if recent Tests here are anything to go by.  

Proof of that is that there have been no draws in any of the last 10, with India's win in a low-scoring contest last year a good reflection of the sort of wicket and match this might be.  

Interestingly, England also lost here to Sri Lanka the year before that.  

Match Winner odds 

England are 4/5 with New Zealand 11/8 and the draw out at 13/2, understandably the highest price of the three by some margin.  

Team-wise, NZ have lost one player since the last game, and though that was the great Williamson, it's also true that he'd reached a stage where you didn't really fancy him to get big runs anymore. Maybe his retirement will be a blessing in disguise after all.  

England, as we know, are missing three, and that includes the two bowlers who won them the match last week.  

New Zealand has some fine Test bowlers here with far more experience, and that could make all the difference if, as expected, these are bowler-friendly conditions.  

Greater nous of the longest format may be a big factor here, especially when we remember that England have lost their last two in south London.  

*You can bet on this match and check out all of the latest and live England vs New Zealand Odds over on betfred.com

NZ Top Bowler  

That man Matt Henry is the favourite to be NZ First innings top bowler at 5/2 and his record of winning five of the last nine gives you a clue as to why that is.  

But he looked out of sorts last week and has rarely come to terms with English conditions in the past.  

This could be a wicket far more suited to the height and skills of Kyle Jamieson, who didn't deserve to be on the losing side at Lord's after five wickets in the first innings (one more in the second) and runs with the bat.  

He's got form in English conditions, being man of the match in the WTC a few years ago against India with another masterclass of a bowling display in that one. He has a considerably better record than Henry when it comes to strike rate, by the way, with Henry at 52.4 and Jamieson at 43.1.  

Nathan Henry (3/1) was superb in the second innings, and William O'Rourke has had a strong start to his international career. But Jamieson, in a good space and in conditions he enjoys, is the one to go with.