New Zealand vs England Prediction: Brook and Ravindra can be the class acts in Wellington

Jamie Pacheco previews the 3rd ODI between New Zealand and England played at Hamilton on Saturday, with a start time of 01:00 and live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie is keeping faith with Rachin Ravindra after a near-miss last time out and is also putting faith in the in-form England skipper, Harry Brook, to top score for his own side. Read his reasoning and all the analysis ahead of the match with his New Zealand vs England Predictions here on Betfred Insights...   

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

New Zealand  

If the Kiwis could always play ODIs on fair pitches, offering something to the bowlers but also rewarding good shots and good running, in other words, where 'cricket smarts' come into play, they'd arguably be the best ODI side in the world.  

Instead, they save their best performances mostly for ODI series where, at home, on exactly the sort of pitches just described, they are excellent. They dismissed England on Wednesday for just 175 after 36 overs and chased it comfortably.  

The absence of Matt Henry from the side due to injury was a potentially big blow to our chunky bet on New Zealand at 11/8. Still, we shouldn't have worried because his replacement, Blair Tickner, ended up being Player of the Match thanks to figures of 4-34, his scalps including the key one of Joe Root.  

But as ever, it was a team effort with the ball. Six bowlers were used, all six took at least one wicket.  

In the chase, fifties from Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell, his second in two games, meant the result was never in doubt, Mitchell Santner playing his second important cameo with the bat in two games, reminding us he's a proper all-rounder.  

So a good and much-needed win for us at 11/8 on the Black Caps. If Matt Henry is fit, he'll play but they're unlikely to drop Tickner, so Nathan Smith could be the one making way, not that he did much wrong.  

England 

Bazball may not be as well-suited to ODIs as it is to Tests after all.  

Going for big shots out of nowhere proved the downfall of the likes of Jamie Smith and most of these batters don't appear to have the patience for what at 50 overs-a-side, is still quite a long game. 

Joe Root, of all people, lost his patience after two balls weren't called wides- a new rule determines that when a batsman moves across his stumps it's unlikely a wide will be called unless it's very much down the leg side – and clipped one to the keeper on the third delivery down the leg side. Unlucky? Sure. A case of a senior player who should have known better? Yes, that too.  

Harry Brook was on course for another rescue act before falling to a brilliant catch by Will Young. So, in the end, it was left to Craig Overton, whose place in the side has so often been disputed, to muscle his way to 42 (top scoring in the process) off just 28, so he's in favour at the moment.   

Jofra Archer returned superb figures of 3-23 off 10 but didn't have enough runs to play with. He's likely to sit this one out as they manage his workload.  

Jacob Bethell has looked a bit scratchy, and bringing in a more experienced man in Tom Banton may not be the worst trade, but it's unlikely.  

Pitch and conditions

New Zealand have played at the Basin Reserve in Wellington 28 times in ODIs, winning 14 and losing 11 of the completed matches.  

That's a win rate of 56%, a very different story from the 78%-win rate the Kiwis had at Hamilton, which made us so keen on them ahead of that one.  

However, we do note that New Zealand have won its last five in a row here against Pakistan (three times), Bangladesh, and New Zealand.   

280, 315, 271 and 318 were winning scores (across those last five) for New Zealand batting first in all of them, suggesting it's a high-scoring ground and that batting first is the way to go.  

Match Winner Odds

The odds-compilers have finally woken up and smelt the coffee. New Zealand should have probably been favourites for all three matches, yet they only have that status when they're 2-0 up.  

They're 4/5, implied probability of 55.6% with England now out to evens, 50%.   

We still think NZ are the better side in their own conditions and are playing the better cricket, but we don't want to be taking a far, far shorter price this time round. 

*For all the latest and live New Zealand vs England 3rd ODI Odds then head over to betfred.com 

New Zealand Top Batsman   

We were extremely unlucky with Rachin Ravindra the other day. Chasing a small total, an opener getting to 50 normally has it in the bag, but along came Mitchell, hitting the last ball of the match for four and trumping Ravindra's 54 with his own 56. Had he nudged a single, and Santner hit the next ball four, we would have won.  

But that's not reason enough to abandon faith in Ravindra. One slice of bad luck doesn't disguise the fact he has an excellent record in ODIs and that as an opener, he has a big advantage. He's only played at Wellington once, scoring 45.  

His price is a bit shorter at 4/1 than it was last time at 9/2, but it's still decent enough.  

England Top Batsman  

For England, Harry Brook looks an obvious choice but a good one, on the equivalent market.  

The two openers look all at sea, Bethell hasn't got going and even Jos Buttler looks rusty. Brook on the other hand, a 4/1 chance, played one of the best ODI knocks you'll ever see in the first game and was in good touch again in the second before that match-changing catch from Young. Root deserves a lot of respect, but then again, Brook is in better form and at a bigger price.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 116.5 
• Points Returned: 107.48 
• Current P/L: -9.02 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...