Santos vs Sao Paulo Prediction: A fourth San-Sao card in five for Sabino

Santos began their Brazilian Serie A season with a 4-2 defeat at newly-promoted Chapecoense-SC last week, despite taking a 2-1 lead in the 67th minute. Peixe will be desperate to get up and running in the league on Wednesday (23:00 GMT) against Sao Paulo, who shocked reigning champions Flamengo 2-1 in the opening round before beating Santos 2-0 in the Paulista on the weekend.

While that victory for Sao Paulo came at their Estadio Do MorumBIS, this league fixture takes place at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Santos. Below are my Santos vs Sao Paulo predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek San-Sao derby.

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Team News

Neymar is back in Santos training after recovering from a knee injury, but if he is named in Wednesday's squad, he certainly won't be a starter.

Alvaro Barreal, who came off the bench to score his side's second and final goal at Chapeoense last week, started against Sao Paulo on Saturday and is expected to get the nod again from the off by boss Juan Pablo Vojvoda.

Football Odds

Like Neymar, Sao Paulo forward Andre Silva is nearing a return after suffering his own knee issues.

Ryan Francisco (knee) is another knee injury victim, and he appears to be further away from a return for Hernan Crespo's side.

Santos vs Sao Paulo Odds

Santos are 11/10 to beat Sao Paulo at home for the second consecutive season, following their 1-0 win last November, implying a 47.6% probability of success, while Sao Paulo are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to record their first regular-season victory here since November 2014, with the draw offered at 11/5.

Booking Points Over/Under +62.5 - Over 62.5 @ 1/1

Last weekend's head-to-head was a feisty affair as seven yellow cards and one red card, amounting to 85 booking points, were dished out.

Last season's corresponding fixture produced six yellows (60 booking points), while the reverse fixture saw 10 yellows (100 booking points) awarded.

Today's Football Fixtures

Six of the last eight matches between Santos and Sao Paulo have seen over 62.5 booking points recorded, and at EVS, I'm happy to back a seventh in nine on Wednesday.

Player to Receive a Card - Sabino (SAO) @ 13/5

Sabino has received four yellow cards in six appearances against Santos, including three in four as a Sao Paulo player.

The 29-year-old was booked in last season's 3-1 Paulista defeat at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira (February 2025), as well as in his side's 2-1 Serie A victory at the Estadio Do MorumBIS a couple of months later, while his latest caution against Santos came last weekend.

Sabino, who averaged 1.2 fouls per game in last year's Serie A, committed three fouls in just 45 minutes of Paulista action on the weekend, going into the book for the last of those challenges on Rony before being withdrawn at half-time.